The most significant event yesterday and the entire trading week for the main currency pair of the Forex market was the scheduled meeting of the European Central Bank, following which the ECB was to announce its decision on interest rates. Few expected that the European regulator would change rates. The main interest rate remained at zero, the rate on deposits at the level of -0.50%, and the margin rate remained at the level of 0.25%. At the same time, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank will continue to consistently implement the PEPP, which has become a true crisis measure due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. It should be emphasized here that the monetary policy of the ECB already provided for the purchase of assets until inflation rises to the regulator's target of 2%. The whole point, of course, is in the volume of the PEPP, which, as a result of the invasion of the coronavirus epidemic in the European region, increased by a total amount to no less than €1.850 billion, and its duration is focused on the end of March 2022.
Naturally, much here will depend on the further epidemiological situation and, of course, on macroeconomic statistics. The ECB Governing Council considers the third stage of the operation to ensure sufficient liquidity, which takes place within the framework of the TLTRO program, as another extremely important factor. And this program is quite successful and positive since the banking sector and households receive substantial support due to super-cheap loans, and it is much easier for them to breathe in this coronavirus period. In general, according to the ECB Governing Council, so far everything is going according to plan. This is also indicated by the macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone, which has recently shown an improvement in indicators, and consistent.
ECB President Christine Lagarde during her traditional press conference, after the ECB's decision on rates, paid special attention to the progressive rates of mass vaccinations in the European region, which will undoubtedly have a positive effect on the economic recovery. However, the current situation still remains shrouded in a cloud of uncertainty, so it's too early to talk about full normalization. Much of the ECB's future monetary policy will depend on the subsequent fight against the insidious coronavirus pandemic, and the incoming macroeconomic reports. Lagarde believes that it is still not worth using the full scope of the PEPP, it is much more expedient to make decisions taking into account the changes in the pandemic and economic situation in the European Union.
To complete the introduction, which is quite impressive in its size, and move on to examining the EUR/USD charts, I note that no sensations were noted either in the ECB's decision on rates or in Christine Lagarde's speech. In principle, everything was in line with market expectations. The main fundamental events of today will be the publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors, which will come from both Europe and the United States. By the way, statistics on these indicators have already been released from France, Germany, and the eurozone, and they turned out to be almost all stronger than the predicted values. This factor once again confirms the correctness of the ECB's course, and at this stage may further affect the strengthening of the single European currency.
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However, the main task of the euro bulls at this point remains unresolved. Let me remind you that to continue to grow, it is vitally important to pass the price zone near 1.2080 and consolidate above the most important technical level 1.2100. It is even more obvious that the subsequent bullish scenario will take shape if the quotes consolidate above the level of 1.2120. After the last three daily candles highlighted on the chart, today, at the end of this article, the pair demonstrates a very confident growth, in case of continuation of which the market will once again test the strength of the level 1.2079, where the maximum trading values were shown on April 20. If the breakdown of this resistance takes place, then there is already up to 1.2100 a stone's throw. I guess that around this mark there will be a struggle between the opposing sides for the closing price of today and weekly trading. Let me not mislead anyone today and refrain from specific trading recommendations. The current situation is not suitable for this. I very much hope that on Monday, given the results of this week, there will be more food for thought, and, consequently, more options for entering the market.
