Last Friday's economic calendar had a lot of statistical data, which clearly drew the attention of traders.
Here's the details of the economic calendar on April 23:
The publication of retail sales data in the UK was considered as one of the most significant events. It was not only better than the forecast, but also surged by + 7.2% in annual terms, given the fact that the previous data was negative -3.6%
The retail sales report is issued by the Office for National Statistics in Britain and reflects the total number of receipts for purchases in retail stores. The change in retail sales is usually considered an indicator of consumer spending. The growth of the indicator should lead to the strengthening of the national currency – GBP.
In this case, the retail sales figures stimulated buyers to take action.
Euro's value rose during the release of statistical data.
After two and a half hours when the retail sales was published, the UK's index of business activity came out, which was very great.
The Markit index of business activity in the services sector for April increased from 56.3 points to 60.1 points, with a forecast of 59.0.
The index of business activity in the service sector, prepared by the Royal Institute of Procurement and Supply together with Markit Economics, is an indicator of the economic situation in the UK service sector. It generally assesses the state of sales and employment within the sector. The growth of the index may lead to the strengthening of the national currency – GBP.
The Markit index of the business activity manufacturing sector for April also increased from 58.9 points to 60.7 points, with a forecast of 59.0.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Business Activity Index (PMI), published by the Royal Institution of Purchasing and Supply in conjunction with Markit Economics, measures the business climate and conditions in the manufacturing sector. The growth of the index may lead to the strengthening of the national currency – GBP.
The business activity index supported the pound.
During the US trading session, a similar index of business activity was published in the United States, where growth was also observed.
- The Markit index of business activity in the services sector for April rose from 60.4 points to 63.1 points, with a forecast of 61.5
- The Markit index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for April rose from 59.1 points to 60.6 points, with a forecast of 60.5.
This data supported the US dollar locally, albeit temporarily.
Analysis of trading charts on April 23, 2021:
Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair not only showed active upward interest from the pivot point of 1.2000, market participants also managed to break through the local high (1.2080) of April 20, which led to an increase in the volume of long positions (buy positions).
The trading recommendation on April 23 considered the coordinates 1.1990 (sell) and 1.2080 (buy) as the starting point in the upcoming acceleration. As a result, buy positions became relevant in the market.
Meanwhile, the British currency continued to work out the coordinates of 1.3825 as a pivot point, directing the quote towards the area of the psychological level of 1.3950/1.4000.
In the previous analytical review, the possibility of renewed downward interest was considered. However, sell positions would become relevant only if the price was kept below the level of 1.3820. Otherwise, we will continue to trade on the rebound from the variable pivot point of 1.3825.
Trading recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 26, 2021
Today, the United States will publish its data on orders for durable goods for March, which is expected to rise by 2.50%, against the -1.2% in the previous period.
This indicator is prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau and reflects the value of orders received by manufacturers of durable goods. They are understood as those whose service life exceeds 3 years, for example, cars. Since the production of such goods involves large investments, the growth of the indicator leads to the strengthening of the national currency.
Looking at the trading chart of EUR/USD, an upward cycle from the area of the psychological level of 1.2000 can be noticed, which is still relevant in the market. If the upward mood is maintained and the price consolidates above the level of 1.2130, the next movement towards 1.2180 is not excluded.
An alternative scenario considers the price decline within the borders of 1.2050/1.2100.
As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD, it can be seen that the upward sentiment is still relevant among traders, but the set cycle from the support point of 1.3825 has already led the quote to the area of 1.3930/1.3950, which can negatively affect the volume of long positions.
Traders will consider the subsequent buy positions after the price is held above the level of 1.3950, since in the case of a repetition of the natural basis of the past, there may be a stagnation in the area of 1.3930/1.3950, followed by a rebound.
