Yesterday's trading on the main currency pair of the Forex market was very nervous. I believe that on the eve of the results of the two-day meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed, investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude and are in no particular hurry to open new positions. As noted yesterday, it is unlikely that the Fed will make changes to its monetary policy. At least the main interest rate is likely to remain in the range of 0.00%-0.25%. If so, special attention will be paid to the updated economic forecasts and the press conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. But even here, probably, nothing new will be said. I believe that the head of the Federal Reserve will remain committed to his previous rhetoric, where the issues of the rate of vaccination of the population against COVID-19, the improvement of the US labor market, and the inflationary component will be at the forefront. As a result, Powell will be explicit that the right time has not yet come for the normalization (or tightening) of monetary policy. It is necessary to continue to take a wait-and-see attitude while carefully analyzing the incoming macroeconomic reports. Let me remind you that the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve begins today, and tomorrow, at 19:00 London time, we will learn about the decision of the US regulator on interest rates, get acquainted with the updated forecasts for the economy. At 19:30 (London time), Jerome Powell's press conference will begin. If you look at today's economic calendar, no reports are planned from the eurozone. The most significant release from the United States will be the consumer confidence indicator, which will be published at 15:00 (London time).
Daily
As already noted at the beginning of the article, before tomorrow's Fed results, as well as on the eve of Jerome Powell's speech, the market took a wait-and-see attitude. It can be judged by yesterday's candle, which shows that the euro/dollar was trading in the range of 1.2115-1.2061. It is characteristic that yesterday's recommendations on buying and selling EUR/USD were generally correct. The strong and key resistance of sellers at the moment in the area of 1.2100-1.2120 remained insurmountable, and support in the area of 1.2080-1.2060 presumably limited the stronger decline of the pair. As for the shape of the candle itself for April 26 and the place from where it was formed, this can be perceived as a reversal candle signal. And at the time of completion of the review, this version is confirmed. The pair shows a downward trend and is approaching yesterday's lows at 1.2060, in the event of an update of which the next targets of the bears for the euro will be the levels of 1.2030 and 1.2000. For the pair to resume its upward dynamics and strengthen bullish sentiment, it is necessary to break through the strong resistance of sellers at 1.2115.
H1
Given the uncertain nature of trading, which is primarily due to tomorrow's Fed decision on rates and the speech of Jerome Powell, I do not rule out the option in which you can try positioning in both directions. I recommend considering sales from the price zone of 1.2080-1.2100 and purchases from 1.2060-1.2045. Simultaneously, in both cases, it would be good to see confirmation signals and only then enter the market.
