On the H4 chart, the wave pattern still does not require any clarifications and additions, as the recent movement has not changed at all. There is still a high demand for the Euro currency, therefore, the currency itself continues to increase. A successful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level led to the fact that the expected first wave became more complicated and prolonged. Inside it, 5 waves are not visible, so it can take almost any kind of length. Nevertheless, it is expected to be completed in the near future and the quotes' departure from the reached highs as part of the construction of the second wave of a new upward trend. However, it was already mentioned that the current upward wave can further extend.
The news background for the EUR/USD pair was almost empty during the first days of the current week. There were no interesting reports published in the US or the EU. On Monday, America's volume of orders for durable goods was released, but despite higher market expectations, the US currency did not decline, but on the contrary, rose. However, we can only talk about the dollar's growth only in the context of one day. The results of the Fed's next meeting will be announced on Wednesday. Markets don't expect anything surprising from the US regulator, but there is always a small chance that something unexpected will happen. Therefore, we prepare for this event as if Jerome Powell is going to raise the stakes.
Meanwhile, the European Union has sued the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca for disrupting the supply of the coronavirus vaccine. It is reported that representatives of the European Commission filed a lawsuit in one of the Belgian courts on behalf of all 27 EU countries. The European Union accuses AstraZeneca of not having a clear strategy, which led to the disruption of supplies. It should be recalled that AstraZeneca delivered only 30 million doses to the EU instead of 120 million in the first quarter of 2021. It is also expected that volumes will be disrupted in the second quarter, although earlier representatives of the European Union expressed hope that the situation with vaccines will get better in the second quarter. Earlier, the European Commission Head, Ursula von der Leyen, threatened AstraZeneca to ban the export of the vaccine from the European Union, as it turned out that the company only breaks European supply contracts, and regularly continues to send vaccines to the UK, although there is no shortage of vaccines there. It is also worth noting that the AstraZeneca vaccine was repeatedly banned or not recommended for use in the EU due to the occurrence of several cases of blood clots in people who were administered it.
According to the analysis, an upward trend is still expected to form. Despite the fact that the attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level was very successful, we still hope for the construction of the second wave. Therefore, it is not recommended to hurry in opening new purchases. It is better to wait until wave 2 or b is done.
The wave pattern of the upward trend part is still quite complete, so the five-wave form is not going to get complex yet. But the part of the trend, which started to immediately form after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. This part of the trend is also almost done.
