S&P 500. Daily chart.
The US market stood still yesterday in anticipation of the news from the Fed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 remained unchanged, tech stocks declined slightly, while the NASDAQ closed 0.3% lower.
The growth of Asian markets also slowed down, having changed by less than 0.5% per trading day.
Oil prices showed a moderate increase of 0.5% following the news that US crude inventories rose by 4 million barrels during the week.
Today's news from the Fed is in the focus of traders. There is no doubt that the Fed will maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy, keep interest rates near zero, and continue providing markets with liquidity using its asset purchase program. However, market participants are hoping to receive some clues about upcoming changes in monetary policy. Thus, according to the forecasts for the important report on US GDP to be released tomorrow, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.8 percent, which is above the Fed's target of 2.5%. The Fed's attitude to inflation in the country is the key question which may have a severe impact on the prospects for the market and the economy.
The USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards for the second day in a row. The US dollar has advanced by more than 100 points against the yen, which means that Japanese investors are buying the greenback ahead of the Fed news.
S&P 500 - 4,186. Anticipated range - 4,140–4,210. The market may continue expanding in case of a sign of optimism from the Fed, but the risk of a great correction is very high.
USDX - 91.06. The US dollar index is finally rising after a prolonged decline initiated in early April. The US dollar index appears to have found support at 90.65. Anticipated range - 90.65–91.45.
USD/CAD - 1.2405. The Canadian dollar has jumped to its annual highs against the US dollar, and there are no signs of a reversal yet. In case the price breaks below 1.2360, the USD/CAD pair will most likely continue trading in a downtrend. The range in which the quotes are likely to trade is 1.2360–1.2450. If the US dollar gains in value amid the Fed news, the pair may rebound upwards.
Conclusion: Market participants are awaiting the news from the Fed to confirm its ultra-loose monetary policy for a long term. If the Fed focuses on inflation growth, the US market may face a strong pullback and the US dollar may gain in value.
