GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes have spent the last few days mainly between the levels of 38.2% and 23.6%. The last one was a fall to the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3879), which was again followed by a reversal in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth. However, this time, the quotes closed above the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3928), which increases the probability of further growth of the quotes. The reason for the sharp fall in the US currency lies in the Fed meeting, the results of which were summed up last night. I have already said what the Fed told the markets. In short, the Fed made it clear that there is no talk of any tightening of monetary policy now, the asset purchase program will remain at the level of 120 billion per month, and no one from the monetary committee is even thinking about the key rate in 2021.
However, now the Fed meeting is over, and the US currency needs to look for some other reasons to show at least a small increase. Today in America, the report on GDP for the first quarter will be released. Recently, both Jerome Powell and many experts have noted the high rate of recovery in the US economy, but today traders will find out how well things are going. According to various forecasts, GDP in the first quarter will grow from 6% to 6.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. And this value will be very high, as, in the fourth quarter, growth of 4.3% was recorded. The US economy is accelerating. But will this value be enough for traders to buy the dollar? The ascending trend line on the hourly chart allows for a drop in the pair's quotes, and in any case, the British can not grow constantly, but there is probably no talk of changing the trend to a downward one now. The maximum that the US currency can count on is a small increase.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair, after the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator, resumed the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.4003, to which it remains just a little bit. A rebound from this level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a resumption of the fall in quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.3870).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.4084), and the ascending trend line received new points, through which it now passes. The new closing of the quotes under the trend line will again allow us to count on a strong drop in the British quotes.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Wednesday, the calendar of economic events in the UK was empty, and in the US, the Fed meeting results were summed up. The information background was quite strong.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
US - change in GDP for the quarter (12:30 UTC).
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
There will still be no information background in the UK on Thursday, and a fairly important GDP report will be released in the US.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from April 20 on the British was again very eloquent. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 10,523 long contracts and 8,205 short contracts during the reporting week. Thus, the first thing to note is the growth of the activity of major players. In total, 15,171 long contracts and 20,600 short contracts were opened during the reporting week. That is, the activity grew in all categories of traders. The mood of speculators has become more "bullish," and the ratio of the number of long and short contracts focused on their hands remains approximately 2:1. That is, the British can continue the growth process.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend buying the British dollar with a target of 1.4084 if there is a rebound from the trend line on the daily chart. I recommend selling the pound if it is closed under the trend line on the daily chart with a target of 1.3513.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
