Yesterday, the main macroeconomic event was the preliminary data on US GDP for the first quarter of 2021. It was noted in today's EUR/USD article that these reports were strong enough to exceed economists' forecasts. It should be recalled that the consensus forecast assumed that the world's leading economy would rise by 6.1% in the first quarter, but the actual figure was 6.4%. These statistics showed once again that the US economy is faster than others when coping with the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, the Fed's "dovish" rhetoric does not give or postpone the strengthening of the US currency in relation to its main competitors. However, there are some signs of a change in the situation that are starting to be seen. This will be discussed in detail later, but for now we should talk about today's macroeconomic statistics.
At the end of the week and month, market participants will focus on American reports, which will begin to come out at 12:30 Universal time. At this time, data on personal income and expenses of US citizens, as well as the basic price index of personal consumption expenditures, will be released. A little later, at 13:45 Universal time, the Chicago purchasing managers' index will be published, and the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan will end the day at 14:00 UTC+00.
Daily TF
During yesterday's trading, the pound bulls raised the quote to 1.3975, but they could not consolidate around the reached highs. As a result, a candle appeared in the daily time frame, with a particularly long upper shadow several times larger than the size of the bullish body itself. In terms of its shape, this candle is very similar to the reversal model of the candle analysis "Tombstone", but do not be confused by the presence of this candle body. Ideally, the "Tombstone" model should not have it at all, but in this situation, this is not the main and determining factor. First, the previously designated resistance zone of 1.3950-1.4000 fulfilled its function and did not let the quote go higher. Second, the pound bulls look like they used all their strength, as they were unable to raise the quote to the iconic psychological and technical level of 1.4000, in order to retest it for a breakdown. Lastly, today's attempts to continue the growth failed already at the level of 1.3957, after which the pair turned downwards and is trading around the 1.3920 mark.
At the same time, the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator is being actively or even sharply tested for a breakdown, which was previously lower, near the level of 1.3860 and provided strong support to the price. If today's trading ends below Tenkan and the level of 1.3900, the strong support zone of 1.3860-1.3850 will be tested again for breakdown, and it is very likely to overcome this level. For those who wish to open new positions on the last day of monthly and weekly trades, it is suggested to carefully look at sales after closing three consecutive hourly candles at the level of 1.3920, on a pullback to the area of 1.3920-1.3930. We do not exclude successful purchases after the decline to the support area 1.3875-1.3855.
It is worth noting that on days like today, when both the month and the week are closed, the market can be quite good. This means that sharp and short-term movements in both directions are not excluded. But for those who do not want to take risks, it will be better to stay outside the market today. On Monday, the results of the April and weekly trades will be summarized and we will decide on further positioning of the GBP/USD pair based on this.
