Technical outlook:
USDJPY has been drifting sideways since May 24, after printing swing lows around 126.36. Contracting triangle consolidation seems to be complete around 126.86 during the Asian session on Monday. Bulls will be poised to regain control and push through the 129.40-50 zone in the next few trading sessions. A break above 127.35 will accelerate.
USDJPY dropped between 131.34 and 126.36, carving a meaningful downswing as seen on the 4H chart. The currency pair is working on the above boundary and setting up for a counter-trend rally towards 129.40. It is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the downswing and the 1.618 extension of the proposed counter-trend.
UDJPY is expected to produce a strong bearish bounce around 129.40 due to the above Fibonacci convergence. Bears would be back in control thereafter and drag towards 124.50 and up to 123.30 going forward. Only a consistent break above 131.34 will change the structure and nullify the bearish scenario.
Trading plan:
Potential short-term rally towards 129.40, then lower to 124.50 against 131.50
Good luck!
