EUR/USD
We received disappointing US employment reports last Friday. In the non-agricultural sector, 266,000 jobs were created in April against 978,000 expectations, the March indicator was revised downward from 916,000 to 770,000, unemployment increased from 6.0% to 6.1%. Even in Canada, unemployment jumped from 7.5% to 8.1%. The euro jumped 100 points. Yet further growth is not evident. The price stalled at the high on December 4 2020, and the next target, corresponding to the high on February 25, coincides with the upper border of the price channel starting in July 2008. Factors that are more important than even non-farms are necessary in order to update it. Moreover, we believe that the employment report was falsified to give the White House administration a reason to push other stimulus Biden packages. And if so, in the near future the inflow of capital back into the country through the placement of debt obligations will increase, which will increase the value of the dollar.
On the daily chart, a price divergence is formed with the Marlin oscillator. Today's situation is not defined, perhaps it wont even clear up tomorrow. There is currently no single fixed signal, with the same probability the price can continue to rise to 1.2243 (or try to grow to this target) and return back to the beginning of growth - to the level of 1.1986, which coincides with the MACD line.
On the four-hour chart, there is a pause before growing further - the price forcefully rose above the MACD line, stopped, the Marlin oscillator turned down slightly to discharge from the overbought zone. The price needs to settle above the level of 1.2177 in order to continue rising. To create the first signal for a reversal, the price must settle below the MACD line in the area of 1.2100.
An option of an additional divergence to the daily timescale is also possible. To do this, the price may drop a bit more, then make a false exit above 1.2177 and turn back down. We are waiting for the development of events.
