The shock report on the US labor market best explains why Fed officials are reluctant to start talking about the upcoming rollback of monetary stimulus. The economic recovery in the United States is impressive, and at some point, it may seem that America is on the path of growth and is confidently on course, but this is not so. The growth is to some extent illusory, without additional injections, the recovery will come to an end, and this fact should be taken into account by dollar traders.
In this scenario, the US currency will be under pressure, and it is probably worth tuning in to a downward trend in the near future.
In response to the reduction in the risks of an imminent rate hike by the Fed, the dollar index dipped below the April lows. The corrective recovery from the recession appears to be over. Sellers have perked up and may push the US currency to the level of the beginning of the year when it traded against a basket of competitors in the 89.50 area. Cautious speculators will probably want to wait for confirmation of the impulse to weakening the dollar before transforming into bears on the dollar. For this, the US currency index must fall below 89.7 and 89.15.
Greenback can quickly pass these local levels. In this regard, it is worth paying attention to the USD/CAD pair, which is confidently updating its lows. At the opening of the Monday trading, the Canadian strengthened to 1.2100, which corresponds to a 3-year high. The Canadian dollar was able to rise against the US dollar, even though labor statistics for Canada, released on Friday, were gloomy. Traders ignored the Canadian report as that of the US was much worse. Markets are completely immersed in the US data because it indicated the confidence that the Fed will not raise the rate until 2023, while the Bank of Canada has already decided to change the course.
Despite internal problems, the Canadian dollar will look attractive, supported by a weakening US counterpart. Thus, the bearish rally in USD/CAD to the area of 1.2000 and below may continue. An additional positive factor for the Canadian dollar is the growth of oil and improved forecasts for the growth of the Canadian economy.
The growth beneficiary is now the pound sterling, which has managed to take full advantage of the weakening dollar. At first, the GBP/USD pair rose sharply, breaking through and consolidating above the first target - 1.3975. After breaking through the round level of 1.4000, buyers quite quickly dragged the pound into the territory of the 41st figure.
The growth momentum was added today by the political news from Scotland. On Sunday, the British authorities once again ruled out the possibility of a new independence referendum in Scotland. Recall that last week, this question was again raised bluntly - supporters of Scottish independence spoke about the desire to hold a referendum in 2021. However, without the consent of London, they will not be able to do anything.
For the bulls, the GBP/USD pair can rewrite the February highs at 1.4240 this month. Further, buyers without an obvious negative will go straight to the round level of 1.5000.
The area of 1.2350 will be targeted by euro buyers in May. This is two figures above the current levels. The confident growth of the EUR/USD pair to the indicated mark, as in the case of the pound, will open the way to the round level of 1.3000. It's worth noting that the euro and pound are heading for areas they haven't been in for many years. They are untradeable, so flying up to the round mark won't cause many obstacles in the way.
Meanwhile, now, according to analysts, the growth of the euro may be limited by the policy of two large regulators - the ECB and the Fed. If the Fed's policy is aimed at lowering the dollar, which should help the euro, then the ECB's positioning does not give euro buyers confidence in the future. The fact is that the regulator does not provide any specifics, and uncertainty is an anti-ally of the euro.
The ECB has pledged to accelerate the pace of bond purchases in the second quarter. At the June meeting, they can announce the beginning of the curtailment of the program. Investors will perceive this as the beginning of tightening, which will help the euro. Among the representatives of the ECB, there are those who oppose this approach. For example, Olli Rehn is impressed by the Fed's approach. He believes that it would be more correct to adopt the method of the American regulator, allowing inflation to exceed the target level of 2% to compensate for the previous weakness. This indirectly speaks of maintaining a soft policy for a longer time and is a negative factor for the euro.
Considering that the epidemic situation is improving on both sides of the Atlantic, the main driver of the EUR/USD pair may be speculation on the next steps of the Fed and the ECB.
