The wave counting on the 4-hour chart is still absolutely clear and does not require any additions. Supposed wave 2 as part of the new upward trend is presumed to be completed. Thus, at this time, the instrument is in the stage of building the expected wave 3 of a new upward trend section. A successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2172 will indicate that the markets are ready for further purchases of the instrument with targets located near the level of 1.2350. As before, I draw the readers' attention to the fact that wave markings should be as clear and simple as possible in order to make money on it. At this time, this condition is met. There are simply no alternative variants of wave counting since the instrument does not provide any reasons for building such. Consequently, I expect a further rise in the quotes of the European currency.
The last working day of the last week was, of course, very busy. Most of the important reports came from America, but that is what the markets have been waiting for since the beginning of the week. Let me remind you that just recently, a Fed meeting took place, where Chairman Jerome Powell stressed that there are no plans to tighten monetary policy or remove stimulus from the American economy in the near future. According to Powell, the US economy is still far from full recovery, and therefore needs help. Then such rhetoric of the Fed chairman caused misunderstanding among the markets, since, in their opinion, the economy could overheat, and inflation could "fly into the sky." US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also added fuel to the fire when she announced in the middle of last week that the Fed would have to raise the rate slightly. Just a few hours after these words, Yellen said that she wanted to say something completely different and in no way gave advice to Jerome Powell and the Fed. However, many in the market believed until last Friday that the US economy was poised for tightening. However, the latest Non-farm Payroll report showed that Powell was right. Firstly, the last report on non-farm was revised for the worse from 916,000 to 770,000. Secondly, market expectations were almost 1 million new jobs, but in reality, only 266,000 were created in April. Third, the unemployment report showed an increase to 6.1%, rather than a decline to 5.8%, as the markets expected. In general, one continuous disappointment. This explains the collapse of quotes of the American currency on Friday.
Based on the analysis, I still expect the construction of an upward trend. At this time, the construction of the corrective wave 2 or b could have already been completed. Thus, I recommend now to buy the instrument with targets located near the 23rd figure and higher, counting on the formation of a wave 3 or c. There are no reasons to revise the current wave counting yet.
The wave counting of the upward trend is still quite complete, in a five-wave form, and is not going to get complicated yet. But the part of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, took on a corrective and fully completed form. If the current wave counting is correct, then the construction of a new upward trend section has now begun and its two first waves have recently been completed.
