Early in the American session, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,833, after falling to 1,828, the lowest level since May 19th. Gold weakened after breaking below the 21 SMA located at 1,849, leading it to oversold levels.
According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold has touched the bottom of the downtrend channel formed on May 19. In the next few hours, we expect it to bounce back above 1,830 and reach the top of the downtrend channel at around 1,849-1,851.
If gold fails to break out of the downtrend channel, it could pull back again and continue to oscillate within this downtrend channel and could even reach the 61.8% Fibonacci zone at around 1,820.
In the case of breaking 1,850, gold has a strong obstacle at the 200 EMA located at 1,867. A firm return above that level could remove the short-term negative bias. Further up, 1,875 is the resistance of 6/8 Murray, which represents a strong barrier to gold.
Gold is coming out of the oversold area according to the eagle indicator. It is likely to resume the bullish bias in the next few hours and could reach 1,851 there and settle at the 200 EMA on the daily chart.
The short-term bullish picture would be reinforced if gold trades at around 1,851-1,855. In the opposite direction, returning below 1,830, the weakness could materialize again exposing the support 5/8 Murray at 1,812.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy gold as long as it remains trading above the 50% Fibonacci around 1,830 with targets at 1,840 and 1,849. Additionally, a sharp break above the 23.6% (1,851) Fibonacci will be a signal to continue buying with targets at 1,867 (200 EMA) and 1,875 (6/8 Murray).
