The movements of the Pound/Dollar instrument remain difficult to attribute to any particular wave structure. The minimums of the assumed waves c and b practically coincide, so it is difficult to understand where exactly the construction of a new upward trend section began, which, depending on this, can take the form a-b-c or a-b-c-d-e. So far, I'm relying on the layout like a-b-c-d-e. If this counting is correct, then the rise in quotes and the construction of this wave structure could have already been completed. The departure of quotes from the highs reached in the last few by 130 basis points indirectly confirms. Another thing is that the supposed wave e may in fact be wave c, and the entire upward wave structure will still be of five waves. In this case, a downward wave and another upward wave to the level of 1.4243 await us. Other variants of wave counting are also possible. Now I expect, in any case, a decline in quotes, or adjustments to the wave counting will have to be made right now.
The American currency has tended to rise over the past few days, while the Euro/Dollar and Pound/Dollar instruments have been declining. But for the Euro/Dollar it is just a small internal corrective wave, and for the Pound/Dollar it can be a rather strong corrective wave or even the beginning of a new downward trend. Many analysts continue to believe that the pound sterling is very overbought and its real rate is much lower than the current values. This is supported by the weak UK economy (-1.5% in the first quarter), huge problems due to Brexit, which will "haunt" London for many years to come, as well as geopolitical problems in the form of Scotland's desire to secede from England and the unrest on the island. Ireland, which threatens to turn into a bloody confrontation between Protestants and Catholics, adherents of an alliance with England and adherents of reunification with the Republic of Ireland. But despite all these problems, the pound sterling as a whole continues to enjoy increased demand in the foreign exchange market. According to the latest information, London's problems are not diminishing. France wants to block a future financial services agreement with the UK. The main Brexit agreement, the so-called "trade deal", does not regulate this area in any way. In the near future, the parties were supposed to start discussing it, but France believes that Britain does not fulfill all the conditions of the already concluded agreement, in particular, does not provide "fair access" to European ships in British waters. Let me remind you that the "fish issue" was one of the key in the negotiations between Brussels and London in 2020. It was France that suffered the most because of London's refusal to provide the EU with access to its waters. Paris also believes that London does not comply with some other points of the agreement.
At this time, the wave pattern continues to be very confusing, so I recommend waiting for its clarification. There are at least several variants of wave counting, each of which can be implemented in the coming weeks. Now I expect a downward wave to be built, but it is difficult to say what structure it will relate to.
The downward trend section, which began its construction a couple of months ago, is taking on a rather ambiguous form. As I said above, several wave counting options are possible at once. Unfortunately, different options offer different further developments. Therefore, it may be necessary to wait for some time for the current wave counting to clear up a little.
