1. Volume analysis of LTC/USD from Binance
2. Long-term trend analysis
3. Mid-term trend analysis
4. Short-term trend analysis
5. Japanese candlestick analysis
6. Conclusion
7. Statistics
1. Volume analysis of LTC/USD from Binance
The analysis is based on the traded volume data from the Binance exchange on the daily chart. The analysis is carried out based on the footprint-profile theory. According to the theory, the movement of the level of the highest traded volume intraday can indicate the likely direction of the trend. The highest trade volume is the level with the largest number of transactions carried out. That is, it is the level of major market players. Accordingly, if the highest traded volume goes up, it indicates an upward trend. Otherwise, if the level goes down, it indicates a downward trend. Chaotic movements signal that the market is flat.
15.05.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 311
16.05.21 – the level of the highest traded volume (POC – PointOfControl) – 299
The POC has moved down. The price is below the POC. The market is moving in a downward trend.
2. Long-term trend analysis
A trend is your friend. Many traders know this saying but do not know how to use it. The answer is simple: to trade only with the trend. Thus, your trades will be more profitable and less risky. According to the classic Dow theory, there are three main trends:
long-term
medium-term
short-term
These trends should be analyzed before you enter the market. Now, let's take a look at them.
The long-term trend is the daily trend. In this case, trades are conducted in the daily time frame and are held for several days. The analysis of the daily trend is made with the help of the 48-period exponential moving average. If the daily candlestick closes above EMA 48, it will indicate the upward trend. You should enter long positions. Otherwise, if the daily candlestick closes below EMA 48, then it is the downward trend and you should enter short positions.
The price is above EMA 48. It is an upward long-term trend. You should consider entering long positions.
3. Mid-term trend analysis
The mid-term trend is the trend on the 4-hour chart (H4). In this case, we will also turn to EMA 48. If the candlestick closes above EMA 48 on the H4 chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long positions. Otherwise, if the candlestick closes below EMA 48 on the H4 chart, it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short positions.
The price is below EMA 48. It is a downward mid-term trend. You should sell the instrument.
4. Short-term trend analysis
A short-term trend is the trend in the H1 time frame. Moreover, it can show an entry point into the market. We turn to EMA 48 again. If the candlestick closes above EMA 48 on the H1 chart, it will indicate the upward trend. Thus, you should enter long positions. Alternatively, if the candlestick closes below EMA 48, it will indicate the downward trend. Consequently, you should enter short positions.
The price is below EMA 48. It is a short-term downward trend. You can enter short positions. The long-term trend, the mid-term trend, and the short-term trend are not in line.
5. Japanese candlestick analysis
A classic Japanese candlestick analysis is applied to the daily time frame. The daily candlestick is analyzed.
The black daily candlestick has closed downward. Its low is below the previous candlestick's low. It is a Trend candlestick pattern with a long body and small shadows. Based on Japanese candlestick analysis, you should enter sell positions.
6. Conclusion
- Volume analysis – SELL.
- Long-term trend analysis – BUY.
- Mid-term trend analysis – SELL.
- Short-term trend analysis – SELL.
- Japanese candlestick analysis – SELL.
Conclusion: You can buy and sell LTC/USD on May 17, 2021, since various analyses provide different forecasts.
7. Statistics
To analyze how effective this approach is, the data on completed transactions is tracked. The forecast is made for four instruments: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, BCH/USD. 3-months gains: 9.1%. Drawdown: 4.88%. Statement:
I do not open new trades in Litecoin due to market uncertainty.
The risk per trade is 1% of a deposit. A Stop Loss for new trades is placed beyond the daily extreme points. We do not set a Take Profit because we will continue to move the Stop Loss above the extreme points of the upcoming sessions.
Since trading is carried out on daily charts, this recommendation is relevant throughout the day.
Trade with the trend and you will generate profits!
