Although today is already Thursday, I suggest starting the analysis of the dollar/yen currency pair with a weekly scale. It will allow us to illuminate the technical picture of this trading instrument more fully.
Weekly
At last week's trading, the US dollar showed growth against the Japanese yen, and there were no significant changes in the technical picture on the weekly timeframe. As you can see, the pair continues to trade around the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator and cannot yet return above the most important technical and psychological level of 110.00. If we stretch the grid of the Fibonacci instrument to the rise of 102.60-110.97, we see that the USD/JPY pair has corrected to the level of 23.6 Fibo from this movement. At the same time, it is very significant that this Fibo level passes right at another fairly significant mark of 109.00. Right now, at the time of writing, the quote is trading near this level.
To determine the further direction of USD/JPY, we will take the maximum and minimum values of the last weekly candle as a basis. Closing this week above the previous highs of 109.80 (even more so above the level of 110 yen per dollar) will most likely lead to a retest for the breakdown of the resistance of 110.97. The probability of passing up this mark is high. If the bears on the instrument will have an advantage and will lower the rate below the previous lows of 108.35 (even better under the level of 108.00), then we can count on the subsequent decline of the quote. The targets of which will be 107.85, where the orange 144 exponential moving average passes. Below the sellers' benchmarks will be the levels of 107.50 and 107.00.
Daily
As already noted in today's euro/dollar article, the FOMC minutes published last night supported the US dollar, and the pair rose, ending Wednesday's session at 109.21. It is worth noting that, although yesterday's trading ended slightly above the Tenkan and Kijun lines of the Ichimoku indicator, the pair is still trading within the cloud on the daily chart. At the same time, it is characteristic that the upper border of the cloud passes near the resistance level of 109.80. Therefore, for a clear indication of bullish sentiment on this instrument, players need to bring the price up out of the cloud while necessarily breaking through the mark of 109.80. To intercept the initiative, the bears need to lower the rate below the blue Kijun line and then continue the pressure in the lower border of the cloud, which passes at 107.70. Only the true exit of the pair down from the cloud will announce the further intention to move in the south direction. But for now, it is better to take into account both scenarios. To open sales, we are waiting for the appearance of bearish candle analysis models in the price zone of 109.10-109.30 on smaller charts, after which we sell with targets 108.60, 108.40, and 108.10. Near the same values, we track the appearance of bullish models of Japanese candles, after which we try to buy with targets near 109.00 and 109.25. Since the situation is far from unambiguous, I recommend taking a wait-and-see position for those who are new to the market or do not want to risk.
