On the four-hour chart, the wave pattern is still absolutely clear and does not require any additions. During the last few days, the movement of this instrument is very unpredictable, which greatly complicates the internal wave pattern of the expected wave 3 of the upward trend. Now, it can be concluded that the construction of an upward wave 3 in 3 continues, but the inside of this wave of a smaller scale already looks not quite convincing. In general, the quotes is expected to continue to rise with targets located near the 0.0% Fibonacci level, which is also the peak of the last 5 in 5 wave, which finished forming in January 2021. Given the current wave pattern, this level will most likely be broken successfully, since the entire wave 3 can turn out to be very long, in accordance with wave 1 of the upward trend. In addition, the entire section of the trend should take on an impulse, that is, a five-wave form. Accordingly, Wave 5 will also be built in its composition. There are still no alternative wave patterns now.
The news background on Wednesday was empty. The first three working days of this week were extremely boring in terms of news. Moreover, the movements of the instrument simply alternate segments of 50-60 points up and down, thereby endangering the current wave pattern and its integrity. In general, the markets have shown during this week that they are waiting for any new information since the European currency has surged too high, so new drivers are needed to further rise, which are not present at this time at all. It is only on Thursday that there will be something more or less interesting in terms of events. In particular, the European Union will host speeches by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and ECB Board Member Weidmann. In the US, there will be an ordinary report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, data on GDP for the first quarter, as well as a report on orders for durable goods. Unfortunately, most of these events may not provide the markets with any new information, but they can at least slightly surprise the markets.
There is little hope from the speeches of the ECB representatives, as the regulator's rhetoric is absolutely clear from the speeches of Christine Lagarde. At the same time, we already got acquainted with the report on US GDP for the first quarter a month ago, so its value is unlikely to drastically differ from + 6.4%, and reports on applications for benefits and durable goods rarely cause a reaction from the markets. Nevertheless, trading may be more active on Thursday.
Based on the analysis, the instrument is still expected to rise. At this time, it is assumed that the correctional wave 2 or b, as well as the internal wave 2 as part of the assumed 3, are already done forming. Thus, it is suggested to continue buying the instrument with targets located around the level of 1.2300 and the level of 1.2340, for each MACD upward signal. There are no reasons to revise the current wave pattern yet.
The wave pattern of the upward section of the trend still has a fully completed five-wave form and is not going to become more complex yet. The section of the trend, which started to form immediately after it, took a corrective and also quite complete form. If the current wave pattern is correct, then the construction of a new upward section of the trend is continuing and its first two waves have already ended.
