Over the past 3-4 weeks, the Australian dollar has shown a very modest growth against the US dollar, than other major allied currencies. This is largely due to the "dovish rhetoric" of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which intends to maintain a super-soft monetary policy in the near future. Naturally, such actions of the Australian regulator are associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and the recovery of the national and global economy from this scourge. At the same time, the fundamental indicators coming from Australia demonstrate a gradual recovery of the country's economy from the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic. Thus, it is safe to assume that if the Australian regulator moves to tighten its monetary policy, which implies an increase in interest rates, then this will not happen until mid-2022, most likely later. Since this currency pair has been rarely considered lately, I will start the technical analysis for AUD/USD on a weekly time frame.
Weekly
As can be clearly seen on this price chart, after the rise of 0.5510-0.8807, the pair corrected slightly, not even reaching the first pullback level from this movement of 23.6 on the Fibonacci grid. After that, attempts to resume the upward movement have not yet brought tangible results. After reaching the maximum values at the round level of 0.8000, subsequent attempts to resume growth were limited to the level of 0.7891, from which the pair bounced down. However, a good support for the price is provided by the red Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which is now at 0.7712. So, for the second week in a row, Tenkan keeps the quotes from further decline. At the same time, growth attempts look sluggish and rather limited. To return to strong bullish sentiment, it is necessary to break through the sellers' resistance at 0.7891. Only under this condition will it be possible to once again test the strength of the significant psychological and technical level of 0.8000, on the passage of which the long-term prospects of this instrument will depend. For a bearish market on the aussie, it is necessary to lower the price below the Tenkan line with consolidation. Although, the pair may again already find strong support at 0.7673, this time in the form of the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator. These are the prospects of the Australian dollar, judging by the weekly time frame. Moving on to a smaller time period.
Daily
This chart clearly shows that growth attempts are held back by the upper border of the Ichimoku cloud, as well as the blue Kijun line, which is located at 0.7783. In addition, it is vitally important for bulls to break through the sellers' resistance at 0.7796 and consolidate trading in the pair above the strong technical level of 0.7800. If we go to trading recommendations, then for purchases I suggest waiting for the true breakdown of the Kijun line and the level of 0.7800, after which, you can consider opening long positions on a rollback to the broken level. If one or more bearish candles appear near 0.7800, this will be the basis for opening sales.
