As soon as the British government announced the complete lifting of restrictions imposed by the coronavirus pandemic on June 21, the pound skyrocketed. The growth has indeed been quite impressive. Of course, we are talking only about the restrictions in force within the country. There is no talk of any full-scale opening of the borders. However, as expected, the UK is becoming the first major country to abolish quarantine measures. Unless, of course, everything goes according to plan, and some unforeseen circumstances do not happen. Fortunately, there seems to be no reason for this, since the UK is the absolute leader in the implementation of the vaccination program. So, the growth of the pound is connected exclusively with this good news.
At the same time, the news is so strong that the market could clearly ignore the US macroeconomic statistics. However, the data did not come out as expected, and was of a multidirectional nature. So, even without London's plans, the pound would have ignored the data from the United States, as the European currency did. The only thing that coincided with the forecasts was the second estimate of GDP for the first quarter, which once again showed that the economic downturn by 2.4% was replaced by an increase of 0.4%. However, this will not surprise anyone, since this fact has already been taken into account in the value of the dollar. But the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell slightly more than expected. In particular, the number of initial applications decreased by 38 thousand, instead of 19 thousand. The number of repeated applications, which should have dropped by 31 thousand, decreased by as much as 96 thousand. In theory, this should have contributed to the growth of the dollar. However, everything was spoiled by orders for durable goods, which did not grow by 0.7%, but decreased by 1.3%. This fact completely leveled the data on applications.
Durable Goods Orders (United States):
The GBP/USD currency pair has been following the price range of 1.4100/1.4235 for more than 8 trading days, consistently working out the set boundaries. During the last trading day, the price rebounded from the lower limit (1.4100), which resulted in an upward movement.
Market dynamics continue to show signs of acceleration, where the speculative sentiment of market participants is visible to the naked eye.
If we proceed from the current location of the quote, then the control approach of the price with the upper border of the range will be seen.
In this situation, traders, as before, adhere to a logical basis associated with the boundaries of the range, where one should not exclude the possibility of a rebound, by analogy on May 18, 21, 25.
Fundamental changes appear after market participants break through one or another of the side channel boundaries, taking into account the price retention for a four-hour or daily period.
From the point of view of a complex indicator analysis, one can see that technical instruments signal a buy on the minute and hourly intervals due to the price approaching the upper border of the range. The daily period, as before, is focused on the upward cycle, giving a buy signal.
