The wave counting on the 4-hour chart got a little confusing during the day. Until Friday, the wave pattern suggested a continuation of the rise in the instrument quotes within the global wave 3 and its internal wave 3. However, throughout the current week, the amplitude of the instrument's movement left much to be desired, and the trades were held in a very narrow range. Finally, today the markets could not withstand the pressure and began to get rid of the euro. Because of this decline, internal wave 3 is taking on a rather non-standard form, and the entire wave counting may now require adjustments. Markets showed their inability to reach the 23rd figure and the peak of wave 5 in 5 of the previous upward trend. Thus, the entire section of the trend, which originates on March 31, can now take on a three-wave form. If this is true, then the rise in quotes should still resume, since the internal structure of the third wave still does not look complete. Thus, in any case, I expect the quotes to go up. Today's fall still looks like an accident, as there was no important news background in the first half of the day.
On Friday, the news background was again very weak. On the other hand, what difference does it make if the news background was strong on Thursday, but the instrument was in the range of 40 basis points all day? There was no news at all this morning. Only Germany and France have several reports released, but since when have the markets reacted so violently to reports from France? Theoretically, the decline in euro quotes today could be associated with the fall in French GDP. It turned out that in the first quarter, the French economy contracted by 0.1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. Markets were looking for 0.4% growth. On the other hand, inflation in France has accelerated and now stands at 1.4% YoY. Although the markets, most likely, reacted precisely to the GDP. In the afternoon, when the fall in quotes was already in full swing, reports on personal income and expenses of Americans were released in the USA. The first indicator decreased by 13.1%, the second increased by 0.5%. However, here the markets just decided to remain silent. The main index of personal consumption expenditures also became known - an increase to 0.7% MoM and the balance of trade in goods - $85.2 billion. However, the American reports are unlikely to be classified as "important."
Based on the analysis, I still expect the instrument quotes to go up, although at this time I am not sure about the wave counting, it can take on a completely different form. Thus, I still recommend buying the instrument with targets located around the 23rd figure and the 1.2340 mark for each MACD upward signal, but now the entire upward wave structure may complete its construction soon.
The wave counting of the upward trend still has a fully completed five-wave form and is not going to get complicated yet. The section of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, took on a corrective and also fully completed form. If the current wave counting is correct, then the construction of a new upward trend continues and its first two waves have already been completed.
