The Australian dollar gained 21 points on Monday, adding another 30 points this morning, which gives the impression of a vigorous and decisive rise to the target level of 0.7880. But this impression is in strong noises of the growth of commodities (iron ore went up by 4.4% yesterday, oil by 0.9%) and expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on monetary policy today - since all the central banks have spoken about a possible rate hike next year, then the Australian central bank cannot stand aside. And there is a huge pitfall - the Federal Reserve meeting will be on June 16, and very strong labor data is set to be released next Friday in the US: an increase in employment in the non-agricultural sector of 650,000 and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 6.1% up to 5.9%. Such data will allow the Fed to take a closer look at the upcoming policy at the June meeting and give clear guidelines for the key September meeting, which could mean that the Fed could hike rates before the RBA.
If our logic coincides with the logic of investors, then we can expect a moderate rise in the aussie after today's RBA meeting (4:30 London time). One of such moderate scenarios is the growth of AUD/USD to the MACD line to the level of 0.7805 on the daily chart, followed by a downward reversal. Exit above the MACD line opens the target at 0.7880. Above it is the target level 0.7938.
The price is rising above the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator indicates a strong growth, we are waiting for the price at the first resistance at 0.7805.