GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the British dollar on Monday and even closed over the sideways trend corridor. However, there is still a feeling that the upward trend can no longer develop in the same way as before. Nevertheless, the closing of quotes above the corridor and the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.4219) increases the pair's chances of further growth in the direction of the corrective level of 261.8% (1.4344). As for the information background, on Monday, it was also absent for the pound/dollar pair and the euro/dollar pair. But today, a highly anticipated event will also take place in the UK, which can help traders decide on a trading strategy for the coming days. The speech of the Governor of the Bank of England this time is designed to answer several important questions. Let me remind you that at the end of last week, the representative of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vliege, said that the regulator could raise the interest rate next year. Now it would be very nice if Andrew Bailey himself confirmed this information. Because if he confirms the possibility of raising the key rate as early as next year, it will mean that the forecasts for the recovery of the British economy are very high. Let me remind you that even the Fed has not yet said a word about the fact that it will tighten monetary policy. And the Briton may react to such statements by Bailey with new growth. Since there is still no doubt about the upward trend on the older charts, traders continue to look for reasons for new British dollar purchases, not vice versa.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 0.0% (1.4240). The rebound of quotes from this Fibo level will favor the US dollar and a new fall in the direction of the level of 1.4003. Closing above the level of 1.4240 will increase the probability of further growth of the pair. The upward trend corridor continues to indicate the bullish mood of most traders in the market.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, everything still rests on the trend line, along which the movement of quotes of the pound/dollar pair continues. Closing quotes under this line will work in favor of the US dollar and start falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Until this happens, the growth process will continue at the corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no interesting reports or developments in the UK and US on Monday. There was no background information.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - PMI index for the manufacturing sector (08:30 UTC).
US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (13:45 UTC).
US - ISM manufacturing index (14:00 UTC).
UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (15:00 UTC).
On Tuesday, in addition to Andrew Bailey's speech, you should also pay attention to the indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the UK and the US.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The COT report of May 25 on the British dollar showed that the bullish mood of speculators has become stronger. Thus, the British dollar can also continue its growth, although it has been trading extremely boring in the last two weeks. During the reporting week, speculators opened only 936 long contracts, but at the same time, reducing the number of short contracts on their hands by 4,693 units. I also note that, unlike the European currency, interest in the British dollar is declining among all categories of traders. In total, they closed 8 thousand contracts during the week.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar were recommended if the pair closes above the side corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.4270. At the moment, these positions should be kept open. I recommend selling the pound if there is a rebound from the level of 0.0% (1.4240) on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.4136.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
