While bitcoin is trading ambiguously around $36,000 per coin, various studies show that institutional investors have severely lowered their level of interest in bitcoin, miners stop mining until better times, and retail short-term investors are selling bitcoin, as they do not believe in its growth in the near future. We have said several times before that small traders and investors are focused on quick profits and cannot afford to keep Bitcoin on their balance for years. Thus, now, when it became clear that the "bullish" trend is over and it will not recover soon, retail traders have begun to get rid of Bitcoin at any cost, sometimes at a loss. The corresponding technical indicators allow us to draw just such a conclusion. Despite the fact that retail traders do not own a large number of coins, there are a lot of them, therefore, in aggregate, they may have even more coins than institutional ones. This suggests that retail investors continue to have a significant impact on the bitcoin price. Plus, one should not forget that most of the coins (according to research) lie dead weight on their wallets. Out of the 19 million mined coins, about 15 practically do not move, so there are about 4 million coins in circulation. Thus, even any large sale or purchase of several thousand coins can lead to a serious change in the course. What can we say about those periods when the markets began to get rid of bitcoin en masse? Even the sale of 100,000 coins may be enough for the rate to drop by $10,000 or more. Also, many experts believe that not only bitcoin, but the entire cryptocurrency market will continue to fall, which is also not surprising at all. Despite the fact that the bitcoin dominance index has seriously decreased recently, it still continues to have a strong influence on the entire market and continues to pull its "counterparts" along with it. Thus, if we remove from the field of view all the forecasts of "experts" who are already expecting $100,000 per coin and more in 2021, then reality shows that bitcoin is waiting for a long period of consolidation and, possibly, a new fall.
Technically, bitcoin on a 4-hour timeframe not only failed to overcome the Ichimoku cloud, but also went into a kind of flat. In addition, we managed to form two trend lines at once, which squeezed bitcoin between themselves. Thus, in the near future the "spring" may straighten and the market will move with renewed vigor in one direction. The only question is, which one? If there is a breakdown of the lower trend line, the chances of a further fall will increase, at least to the level of $30,500. If the upper trendline is crossed, bitcoin will try to recover to the level of $43,852.
