The wave marking of the 4-hour chart of the NASDAQ-100 index still looks very convincing. Despite the successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the current wave marking suggests the completion of the construction of an ascending set of waves a-b-c. A little earlier, the descending set of waves a-b-c was also completed. Thus, I expect a resumption of the decline in the index quotes in the near future with targets located near the minimum of wave c. If this assumption is correct, then the quotes will take the course at 12922. The last few days have shown that the markets are not yet ready for new purchases of shares included in the NASDAQ index. The alternative wave marking assumes the resumption of the construction of the upward trend section. In this case, the trend section that originates on May 13 will take a five-wave form. This option is also possible. However, the higher wave scale indicates that the five-wave structure has completed its construction. Thus, I still tend to think about a new decline in the index quotes.
All three key US stock market indices ended last week in positive territory, adding 1 to 2.1%. Since all the indexes continue to grow at least moderately, I can now say that inflation in the United States does not frighten investors too much. Nevertheless, any upward trend ends sooner or later. It would be strange if the stock market grew during the crisis, and after it ended, it would still grow. I believe that now is the time to build a deep correction. And inflation will still play a role in this process. In May, the consumer price index may accelerate further and reach 4.7% y/y. Thus, if this rate of acceleration continues, many stocks will cease to be attractive from the point of view of receiving a dividend profit.
Investors may not start selling off all the stocks in a row, but the demand for many of them will fall. Much will depend on the actions of the Fed and its rhetoric. If the regulator clarifies to the markets that it will actively fight inflation, this may support stock indices. But at this time, I have not heard such hints from the representatives of the Fed. The latest data from the US also slightly supported stock indices. The ISM business activity index rose from 60.7 points to 61.2 points in May. And at the end of this week, important data on unemployment and the labor market will be released, which will leave their mark on the stock market. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 46 points (0.46%), while the Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 2 points (0.05%), and the NASDAQ-100 index was down 12 points (0.09%). As you can see, the changes are minimal.
Based on the analysis, I believe that the three-wave structure is complete. However, it can be transformed into a more complex set of waves. If so, then at this time, wave b is close to its completion, and we are waiting for a decline in quotes with targets located around 12922. I now recommend small sales of the #NDX index on each MACD signal "down" for this purpose. Perhaps it is better to wait for a successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level before selling the index. In this case, the markets may show their desire to eliminate the stocks included in the index.
