Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair was not trading very actively again and continued to remain inside the 1.1260-1.2243 horizontal channel (approximately) during the entire third trading day of the week. There were no signs of an intraday flat for the day, but the pair remains in a horizontal channel in the longer term. In any case, it is now unclear what trend it is for the euro/dollar pair. And so, it is unclear which signals from the MACD indicator to consider. Therefore, we recommend that traders still wait for a new trend and only after that should you monitor new signals from MACD. In general, we are inclined to think that the upward trend will continue for the pair, but the upward trend line was broken a few days ago, which can still be seen in the chart. It is impossible to form a new trend line or channel now.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The picture on the 5-minute timeframe turned out to be quite interesting on Wednesday. In total, five signals were generated during the day and not a single macroeconomic report was published. European Central Bank Chairman Christine Lagarde started speaking late in the evening, however, and as we can see, traders did not react to this event. This means that Lagarde did not tell the markets anything interesting. Let's start analyzing trading signals. The first was formed at the very beginning of the European session - surpassing the level of 1.2215. Novice traders could open short positions on it with the nearest level as the target (1.2181). This level was perfectly reached and enabled us to earn 30 points of profit. The deal could be closed upon reaching the 1.2181 level or by Take Profit. The next signal was created in the form of a price rebound from the level of 1.2181 and turned out to be blatantly false, since the upward movement did not continue. As a result, a loss of 14 points was received on this trade. But the third signal - a sell signal - should not be worked out by beginners, since the candlestick on which it formed was very strong. Despite the fact that the downward movement also did not continue, such candles may indicate the emergence of some important information, to which the markets respond with a strong reaction. Therefore, it was best to miss this signal. The next, fourth signal was formed in the form of a reverse overcoming of the level 1.2181 from the bottom up and also brought newcomers about 30 points of profit, since later the nearest level 1.2215 was worked out. It also managed to earn about 30 points of profit. Thus, it was possible to earn 40-45 points in just a day.
Trading tips for Thursday:
The upward trend is still formally maintained on the 30-minute timeframe, so we continue to recommend considering long positions. However, the movement remains as close as possible to a flat, so the MACD indicator can generate false signals and it is not clear in which direction to trade. So, tomorrow we recommend that novice traders continue to ignore any signals from the MACD indicator until a clear trend is formed. It is recommended to trade from the levels 1.2159, 1.2181, 1.2215 and 1.2254 on the 5-minute timeframe. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. On Thursday, both the European Union and the United States will publish several macroeconomic reports, but there will be only two important ones among them. We recommend that you pay attention to the ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the US private sector and the index of business activity in the ISM services sector. It is not at all certain that the market will react to these publications, but the probability of seeing a reaction to the rest is even less likely.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
