GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed both a rise and a fall on Monday and remained within the sideways trend corridor, which has kept the pair inside for several weeks. The last rebound of quotes from the lower border of the corridor did not lead to an increase to its upper border. The pair moves freely, constantly changing the direction of movement. Thus, the euro/dollar and the pound/dollar have fallen into prostration, and traders do not know what to do at this time. But as long as traders decide what to buy, nothing stands still in the world. It became known that the UK and the European Union are due to hold talks this week on new agreements related to trade and the services sector. However, the negotiations will also be on the Northern Ireland border and the protocol that operates on it as part of the general agreement on Brexit. Brussels has repeatedly stated that Britain does not comply with all the protocol conditions and unilaterally changes some of its points. Thus, many members of the European Commission believe that there can be no further negotiations with London until it begins to implement the current agreements. An official from the EU, on condition of anonymity, said that the patience of the European Union is running out on the issue of fulfilling its obligations to the UK on Brexit and Northern Ireland. In his opinion, London faces two options. The first is to continue the "confrontational path." The second is to fulfill its obligations under the already concluded deals and count on the conclusion of new ones.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 0.0% (1.4240), turned in favor of the US dollar, and began the process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.4003, which is constantly interrupted. The upward trend corridor continues to indicate the "bullish" mood of traders. However, the chart clearly shows that the quotes can not continue to grow for almost a month. Closing the pair's rate under the corridor will favor a further drop in quotes and change the mood of traders to "bearish."
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, everything still rests on the trend line, along which the movement of quotes of the pound/dollar pair continues. Closing quotes under this line will work in favor of the US dollar and start falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Until this happens, the growth process can be resumed at any time in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no major economic events in the UK and the US on Monday. The information background was absent on Monday.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
Great Britain - Bank of England MPC Member Andy Haldane will give a speech (13:00 UTC).
On Tuesday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US are again empty, and this situation will continue until Thursday.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The COT report of June 1 on the British pound showed that the mood of the major players has sharply become more "bearish." During the week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders closed as many as 6,544 short contracts and opened only half a thousand long contracts. However, these changes did not affect the British exchange rate. It is still in an upward trend. Other categories of traders also did not behave too actively, and a total of an equal number of long and short contracts were opened during the reporting week. Thus, in general, the "bullish" mood remains, which is supported by the total number of open contracts for speculators. The number of longs exceeds the number of shorts twice.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar were recommended if there is a rebound from the lower border of the side corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.4216. I couldn't get to the goal. New purchases – when rebounding from the lower border of the side corridor or the level of 1.4136 for the same purpose. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling if the daily chart closes below the trend line.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
