GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair traded even worse than the euro/dollar pair on Tuesday. If there was no trading signal generated for the euro/dollar during the day, therefore, in principle, it does not matter how the price moved, then for the pound/dollar pair, the price repeatedly crossed the critical Kijun-sen line. However, it is very good that traders managed to avoid losses and false signals here, since the flat in the European trading session was so obvious that it simply could not be interpreted otherwise. We marked it with a rectangle in the chart. Within seven hours the quotes were within the horizontal channel that was 27 points wide. It should be noted that the total volatility of the day was 64 points, and if we take only the European and US session into account, that is, when we recommend trading, then volatility was 43 points. This is even less than 30 points for the EUR/USD pair. No macroeconomic reports released during the day. A possible conflict between Great Britain and the EU due to non-compliance with the first "Northern Ireland Protocol" did not affect the quotes and the mood of market participants. Thus, there wasn't a single standing signal that was formed here either, and no deals should have been opened during the day.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 9. The ECB can declare a maximum decrease in the rate of bond purchases on Thursday.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 9. London "muddying the waters" again, and the European Union threatens to answer powerfully and toughly for any violation of the Brexit agreement.
GBP/USD 1H
The British pound continues to trade in the horizontal channel of 1.4100-1.4220 on the hourly timeframe and this can clearly be seen. The length of the horizontal channel is already so great that it does not even fully fit into the chart. The pair has been in an absolute flat for more than three weeks and cannot leave the horizontal channel, only occasionally making attempts to break through its borders. And at this time, the pair is generally located strictly in the middle of this channel. Moreover, even rebounds from the channel's boundaries cannot be used as signals, since they are very indistinct. In technical terms, we continue to draw your attention to the most important levels and recommend trading from them: 1.4080, 1.4101, 1.400 and 1.4219. These levels have not changed for a long time, because the price continues to be in a limited range. Senkou Span B (1.4169) and Kijun-sen (1.4141) lines can also be sources of signals, but they are weak in the flat. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. No major events or reports scheduled for Wednesday in either the UK or the US. Thus, we believe that today the flat will persist, and the volatility may be low again. In any case, it is impossible to guess what the volatility will be.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair increased by 55 points during the last reporting week (May 25-31). However, in general, no one doubts the direction of the current trend - upward. It was all the more surprising to watch the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which showed that over the same time period, professional traders opened 500 buy contracts and 6,500 sell contracts. That is, the net position of the "non-commercial" group decreased by 6,000, which is a decent value for the pound. Thus, the picture is as follows. The pound continues to rise and cannot even really correct. At the same time, the size of the net position of the major players practically does not change. Since the beginning of March, changes in the net position have been insignificant, which is shown by both the first and second indicators. And in any case, these changes do not in any way reflect what is happening in the market itself. Moreover, the pound continues to show growth, simply not commensurate with the bullish sentiment of non-commercial traders. Anyway, any group of traders and all together. Thus, we continue to talk about such a global factor as the injection of trillions of dollars into the American economy, which, from our point of view, is the main reason for the strengthening of the British currency. Look, by the way, at the previous section of the trend, between October 2020 and March 2021. The pound gained 1400 points, while the net positions of commercial and non-commercial groups of traders remained practically unchanged. That is, large players did not increase their purchases at this time. At the same time, the pound showed an increase of 1400 points practically without a single pullback. As they say, the presence of third-party factors is obvious.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
