EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair was almost immobilized on Tuesday. However, it still performed a fall to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2166). By and large, the pair's quotes remained in one place all day. Even a few economic reports in the European Union did not help to move the pair. In general, I recommend now paying more attention to the 4-hour chart, where at least there is an important benchmark in the form of the level of 1.2223, and the quotes recently completed a close below the ascending trend line. Nothing interesting is happening on the hourly chart right now. Let's go back to the background information. The reports were not the most interesting yesterday. However, the European Union's GDP for the first quarter was revised for the better (from -0.6% q/q to -0.3% q/q). From my point of view, this report could support the demand for the European currency. However, traders did not want to trade at all and ignored this report and several others. Another index of business sentiment from the ZEW institute was released for the European Union, which fell from 84.0 to 81.3. In Germany, industrial production for April was released, which decreased in volume by 1%, although traders expected a small increase. The ZEW Institute's business sentiment index also fell from 84.4 to 79.8. Thus, several reports were weak, and one was less weak than previously expected. However, the euro showed neither growth nor decline. Thus, traders did not pay attention to all this data. Therefore, they are waiting for more important information. Tomorrow, the European Central Bank will hold a meeting in the European Union, and the most important inflation report for May will be released in the United States. It is tomorrow that I expect an increase in the activity of traders.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes closed under the ascending trend line and under the level of 1.2223, which allows us to continue counting on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. However, the entire movement of the pair is now very unstable, and the US dollar is very difficult to get any growth.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair closed above 161.8% (1.2027). But at the moment, all the charts signal different movements and directions. There is no unity in the graphic picture.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 8, there were no economic reports in America, and in the European Union, economic data did not arouse any interest among traders. Thus, the information background had no effect on the pair's movement on Tuesday.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On June 9, the calendars of economic events in the US and the EU are again empty. Thus, today the information background will be absent.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which again showed an increase in the "bullish" mood among speculators. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened only 751 long contracts, but at the same time, got rid of almost 4 thousand short contracts. Thus, speculators continue to contribute to the growth of the European currency in one way or another. In general, the changes in all categories of traders are minimal. In total, 224 long contracts and 2,142 short contracts were closed, which indicates a low activity of major players in the reporting week.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair in the case of a rebound of quotes from the level of 1.2223 on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.2166 and 1.2117. I do not recommend buying the pair now, as there is a high probability of changing the direction of the trend to "bearish."
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
