Today, the world oil market demonstrates steady growth following a spectacular rise in the past week and a general three-week increase against the background of an improvement in the global situation.
The main upward factor for the positive dynamics remains the prospects for demand for oil in developed countries, which is permanently increasing due to high rates of vaccination and the lifting of restrictive measures.
Thus, US residents began to actively return to work, gather in companies and visit crowded places. In addition, the average daily air traffic in the United States, for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, has stepped over the level of 2 million passengers.
According to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, world oil demand will return to the dock level by the end of next year. This year, according to IEA experts, demand will grow by 5.4 million barrels per day - up to 96.4 million barrels per day, and in 2022 - by 3.1 million barrels per day.
In its Friday report, the agency said that OPEC and its allies must increase oil production to ensure the required level of supply in world markets.
At the same time, analysts cite multiple positive news from North America and Europe that are opening after the pandemic quarantines as the reason for the bright growth of the oil market over the past week.
At the time of writing this material, the oil market is showing the following indicators: the price of August Brent oil futures on the London ICE Futures Exchange was at $73.35 per barrel, exceeding the previous session's closing level by 0.91%.
The cost of July contracts for WTI crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange NYMEX increased by 0.78% - $71.46 per barrel.
Over the past week, the price of Brent rose by 1.1%, and WTI - by 1.9%. At the same time, the price of Brent crude oil broke through the $73 per barrel mark for the first time since May 2019, and the American WTI mark broke through the $70 level for the first time since 2018.
Commodity market experts believe that a new super cycle for the oil market may occur in the short term - prices will continue to rise in the coming weeks, however, their growth rates will be rather slow against the background of the lack of new impetus for the market.
At the same time, analysts consider the possibility of lifting sanctions for Iran to be a likely risk, while emphasizing that the state will not be able to increase production quickly. As a result, this situation is unlikely to have a serious impact on the supply of oil in the world.
Summarizing their forecasts, the experts said that a powerful rise in the oil market is possible in the event of a collision of the world's largest countries with obstacles to the development of alternative energy and a lack of investment in the process of hydrocarbon production.
