Last Friday, another trading week ended on the Forex currency market. In today's article on the USD/CHF pair, we will summarize the trading results on June 7-11 and see the prospects for the further price movement of this interesting trading instrument. To begin with, last week, the US dollar strengthened against all major competitors, except for the Swiss franc. And even though the Swiss franc grew by only 0.06%, the fact remains. Before proceeding to the price charts, I will outline two main dollar/franc currency pair events. On Wednesday, June 16, the US Federal Reserve will announce the results of its two-day meeting, publish new economic forecasts for the world's leading economy, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. I believe that few people doubt that this event will be the most important for the market. Rates in the United States are likely to remain the same. However, the rhetoric of the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve may shed light on the next steps of the most influential and powerful Central Bank in the world. The next day, a similar decision on rates will be made by the Swiss National Bank( SNB). However, this event will remain in the shadow of the Fed in terms of its significance, and this is an objective reality. It is no secret that the SNB's monetary policy is primarily aimed at curbing the appreciation of its national currency. Hence the ultra-loose monetary policy and negative interest rates. Well, let's turn our attention to the price charts.
Weekly
Despite the decline shown in the previous weekly trading, it is not possible to assume that the downward trend for the pair is fully developing. It is indicated by the last two Doji candles and especially by the long lower shadow of the last candle. It is more appropriate to take this picture as the end of the downward dynamics and preparation for its change. At the same time, while the pair is trading under the iconic technical and psychological level of 0.9000, it is impossible to calculate the beginning of a bullish trend with all the desire. So at the auction of the last five days, barely touching the level of 0.9000, the pair immediately bounced down and ended the weekly session at 0.8974.
Another characteristic point is the gradually decreasing maximum values of weekly candlesticks. Earlier, the highs were shown at 0.9092, then later at 0.9051. Moreover, in last week's trading, the total was 0.9000. Thus, the maximum values are reduced by about 50 points, which is quite a lot. At the same time, it should be noted that the USD/CHF pair found strong support at 0.8925. Bears on the instrument have twice tried to push this level. A true breakdown of this support level will indicate a continuation of the downward trend. The bulls on the pair need to overcome 0.9000 and the level of 0.9100, near which there are 50 MA, the Tenkan and Kijun lines, and the lower border of the weekly cloud of the pair Ichimoku indicator. If this condition is met, it will be possible to assume that the downward trend has changed to an upward trend for the dollar/franc pair.
Daily
On the daily chart, I stretched the grid of the Fibonacci tool for a decrease of 0.9471-0.8925. As you can see, the pair corrected to the first level of 23.6, where it met strong resistance and rolled back down. In addition, near 0.9050, we observe the maximum trading values on June 3 and 4. This factor only strengthens the resistance of sellers, which passes in the area of 0.9050. It is also worth noting that the pair is still trading below the red Tenkan line (0.8988) and the blue Kijun line 0.9008.
Given that the resistance levels of 0.9050, 0.9092, and the moving averages used are even higher, the view on the daily chart is quite bearish. However, there is still no particular desire to sell at the very bottom of the market. I suggest waiting for the true breakdown of the support of 0.8925 and considering opening short positions on the rollback to this level. We are looking for sales at more favorable prices in the case of bearish reversal patterns appearing under the resistances of 0.9052 and 0.9092 at smaller time intervals. Regarding purchases, I recommend taking a wait-and-see attitude.
