EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair tried to start a new process of growth and fall on Tuesday. However, both of these attempts ended in nothing. It seems that traders are already focused on the future meeting of the Fed (more precisely, its results) and do not want to trade the euro/dollar pair actively. However, this judgment is not entirely fair since, in recent weeks, there have been plenty of such days when the pair practically stood in one place. Thus, it is better to say that now traders are not too active in principle. Yesterday, the US released a report on retail trade for May. It turned out that this indicator decreased in volume by 1.3%. Traders were prepared for a reduction in volumes but not for such a large one. Thus, after this report, the US currency fell slightly in value.
Today, in the morning, the quotes do not move at all. During the day, nothing interesting will happen either in America or in the EU. Therefore, until the evening, when the Fed begins to announce the meeting results, there may be a very quiet movement. The main intrigue is whether the FOMC will hint at the curtailment of the economic stimulus program or not. From my perspective, Jerome Powell and the company would prefer to stick to more cautious rhetoric. As recent reports have shown, not everything is good in America, and the economy, although recovering quickly, still can not be called stable growth. Thus, the Fed will most likely wait at least a few more months and not rush to conclusions. The GDP indicator now inspires the greatest optimism in the United States. However, NonFarm Payrolls are not always happy, and inflation is not pleased since it shows the same growth rates as GDP.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes, after forming a bullish divergence at the MACD indicator, performed a reversal in favor of the European currency. However, this growth is very weak. In general, the pair continues trading inside the downward trend corridor, which is also very weak. Fixing the pair's rate above the corridor will favor the EU currency and new growth of the pair in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2353).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of returning to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will favor the euro and the resumption of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.2356).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 15, two economic reports were released in America, which did not support the dollar. But in general, the information background was quite weak.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - FOMC decision on the main interest rate (18:00 UTC).
US - FOMC accompanying statement (18:00 UTC).
US - FOMC press conference (18:30 UTC).
On June 16, the calendar of economic events in the European Union is again empty. However, in the US, the results of the Fed meeting will be summed up, so new and important information may appear this evening.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which showed a weakening of the "bullish" mood among speculators. During the week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders closed 5,525 long contracts and a total of 401 short contracts. Thus, the systematic disposal of long contracts began. But their total number in the hands of speculators remains almost twice as large as the number of short contracts. And in general, the changes are not so big now that we can talk about a complete change of mood from "bullish" to "bearish." I believe that speculators are still focused on buying the European currency.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair in the case of a rebound of quotes from the upper limit of the corridor on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.2117. Conversely, I recommend buying the pair if the quotes close above the corridor on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.2275 and 1.2353.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
