GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair also fell on Wednesday after it became known about the increased probability of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2022. In addition, the forecasts for inflation and GDP for 2021-2022 were also raised. Thus, after the morning growth, the pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and fell to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3972). However, the rebound of the pair's quotes from this level already worked in favor of the British dollar and began to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.4024). The entire information background of the last day was very important and interesting. It became known that inflation in the UK accelerated to 2.0% in the morning, which supported the Briton. However, the growth of its quotes did not last long, and in the evening, when the results of the Fed meeting became known, the pair's quotes completely collapsed down by 150 points.
However, I would like to draw attention to the fact that the British dollar was inside the side corridor for a long time before the Fed meeting. Traders did not see any reason to buy the US currency. Thus, yesterday's rise in the dollar may be a one-time coincidence. Let me remind you that the US currency has found it very difficult to find reasons for growth in recent months. Thus, yesterday's fall in the pair's quotes can quickly be replaced by no less strong growth. Today, no important economic information is expected. Therefore, traders can show whether the dollar's growth was not accidental yesterday. Despite the improving prospects for the US economy and the fact that the probability of a Fed rate hike next year has increased, this news will not be a turning point for the US currency.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a consolidation under the upward trend corridor. On the one hand, this allows traders to count on the continuation of the fall since the quotes also closed at the level of 1.4003. On the other hand, yesterday's fall was caused by an important event, which is extremely rare. Therefore, I do not believe that the probability of further growth of the US currency has increased significantly over the past day.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes also closed under an important trend line, allowing traders to now expect a further drop in quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3513). However, in the coming days, you should also make sure that the breakdown of the trend line is not false.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Wednesday, traders were attentive to the British news about inflation and the results of the Fed meeting. Thus, the information background was very strong.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
On Thursday, the information background will be extremely weak, as the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US are almost empty.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The COT report of June 8 on the British pound showed that the mood of the major players has not changed. In total, speculators closed 7,000 long and short contracts during the reporting week. Thus, only the total number of contracts focused on the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders decreased. Moreover, they also got rid of both types of contracts in the "Commercial" and "Non-commercial" categories. Thus, all market players got rid of the contracts for the Briton. It indicates a new drop in interest among traders in the pound. However, the mood of speculators on it remains confident "bullish," as the number of long contracts exceeds the number of short contracts twice.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar are recommended today in the event of a rebound of quotes from the level of 61.8% (1.3972) with targets of 1.4024 and 1.4077. It is recommended to sell the pound if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from 1.4024 or 1.4077 with the targets of 1.4024 and 1.3972.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
