GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair on Monday performed a rebound from the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3800), a reversal in favor of the British dollar, and an increase to the level of 76.4% (1.3906). However, this morning, a reversal was made in favor of the US currency and closed at the level of 76.4% (1.3906). Thus, the fall of quotes can be resumed in the direction of the level of 100.0% (1.3800). If the information background for the euro/dollar pair was almost absent on Monday, it was completely absent for the pound/dollar pair. The British dollar is currently trying to recover from the shock experienced last week when the Fed meeting and its results dropped the pair by 320 points. In recent weeks, coronavirus has become quite acute for the UK, as there is again an increase in the number of diseases with various strains. In recent days, the number of new cases of infection is stable at about 10,000 per day.
However, Boris Johnson tried to reassure the British, saying that all restrictions are likely to be lifted on July 19 in the UK. The British government's desire to increase the number of vaccinations among the population prompted quarantine measures. However, closer to next winter, Johnson does not rule out the introduction of new quarantine restrictions. "We cannot completely exclude the possibility that there will be some new disease, some new horror, which is not provided for either by us or our budget," the Prime Minister said. However, the situation is currently under control, so the British economy is likely to avoid a new shock associated with the pandemic. This week, there will be another meeting of the Bank of England 9and it is very dangerous to predict anything here. Let me remind you that last Wednesday also did not portend trouble, and the US dollar quite unexpectedly received strong support from traders.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). However, after forming a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator, it reversed in favor of the European currency and a reverse close above 1.3870. Thus, at this time, the probability of growth on the 4-hour chart has increased in the direction of the level of 1.4003.
GBP/USD – Daily.
The pair's quotes closed under an important trend line on the daily chart, allowing traders to now expect a further drop in quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3513). All charts currently predict a different direction for the British dollar.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair performed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Monday, traders began to adjust the pound/dollar pair, and the information background on this day was completely absent.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (18:00 UTC).
On Tuesday, traders can only pay attention to the evening speech of Fed President Jerome Powell. There will be no background information until late in the evening.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from June 15 on the British pound showed that the mood of the major players has changed in favor of the bulls. The number of short contracts closed by speculators exceeded the number of closed long contracts by 3,000. However, in general, I note a drop in interest in contracts for the British dollar and an increase in the "bullish" mood. However, this data can already be considered outdated since the most interesting events for the pound/dollar pair occurred already in those days that the latest report does not cover. Therefore, we need to wait for the next report to understand how the "Non-commercial" category of traders behaved during the pound's collapse at the end of last week.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar were recommended in the event of a rebound of quotes from the level of 100.0% (1.3800) with targets of 1.3906 and 1.3972. The first goal was achieved. I recommend new purchases when closing above the level of 1.3906 with targets of 1.3972 and 1.4024. It is recommended to sell the pound if the hourly chart closes below the level of 1.3906 with a target of 1.3800.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
