GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes on Tuesday performed a reversal in favor of the British dollar and fixed above the level of 76.4% (1.3906). However, today, a reversal was made in favor of the Americans, and the process of returning to the Fibo level of 76.4% began. Fixing under it will work in favor of continuing the fall of quotes in the direction of the level of 100.0% (1.3800). The information background of yesterday was very weak, and in addition to the speech of Jerome Powell in the evening, there is absolutely nothing to highlight. However, Powell didn't even say anything interesting. This morning in the UK, business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors will be released. However, there is no doubt that most traders have already focused their attention on tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of England and its results. Everyone is interested in the question, will there be "hawkish" hints in the rhetoric of the regulator and its head? After all, earlier, Silvana Tenreyro and some other monetary committee members pointed to a possible rate hike next year and potential curtailment of the economic stimulus program. At the same time, the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, has never openly said that the bank is starting to study the issue of curtailing the program or preparing to raise rates.
Moreover, at the end of last year, many traders expected the Bank of England to lower the interest rate. Thus, tomorrow's meeting will be designed to answer the questions of what policy Andrew Bailey currently adheres to and how many members of the monetary committee will vote in favor of tightening monetary policy. Let me remind you that all members of the committee voted unanimously in favor of maintaining the current monetary policy at previous meetings.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). However, it reversed in favor of the European currency and a reverse close above 1.3870 after forming a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator. Thus, at this time, the probability of growth on the 4-hour chart has increased in the direction of the level of 1.4003.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes closed under an important trend line, allowing traders to now expect a further drop in quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3513). All charts currently predict a different direction for the British dollar.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Tuesday, the information background was zero. During the day, nothing affected the mood of traders and the pound/dollar pair.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - PMI index for the manufacturing sector (08:30 UTC).
UK - PMI index for the service sector (08:30 UTC).
US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (13:45 UTC).
US - PMI index for the service sector (13:45 UTC).
On Wednesday, both the UK and the US will release the same business activity indices. It is unlikely that traders will pay attention to them, given that tomorrow the results of the Bank of England meeting will be summed up.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from June 15 on the British pound showed that the mood of the major players has changed in favor of the bulls. The number of short-contracts closed by speculators exceeded the number of closed long contracts by 3,000. Nevertheless, in general, I note a drop in interest in contracts for the British dollar and an increase in the "bullish" mood. However, this data can already be considered outdated since the most interesting events for the pound/dollar pair occurred already in those days that the latest report does not cover. Therefore, we need to wait for the next report to understand how the "Non-commercial" category of traders behaved during the pound's collapse at the end of last week.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar were recommended in the event of a rebound of quotes from the level of 100.0% (1.3800) with targets of 1.3906 and 1.3972. The first goal was achieved. I recommend new purchases when rebounding from the level of 1.3906 with targets of 1.3972 and 1.4024. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling if the hourly chart closes below 1.3906 with a target of 1.3800.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
