EUR/USD – 1H.
During Thursday, the EUR/USD pair performed another rebound from the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1919), a slight increase, after which it returned to the level of 1.1919. In general, yesterday passed in very weak movements. Thus, there were no special changes compared to the environment. The worst thing about this situation is that the markets seem to have calmed down too much after last Wednesday when the results of the Fed meeting became known. The chart clearly shows that last Wednesday the quotes passed about 150 points and this figure decreased until it reached the value of 38 points yesterday. Interestingly, there was an information background during yesterday, and some reports can even be called quite important.
In the US, GDP for the first quarter was released in the final estimate. The US economy grew by 6.4%, which should have pleased traders, as America continues to show very high recovery rates. But instead of a positive reaction to this report, traders began to sell the dollar, which led to an increase of a couple of points by 20. In any case, it isn't easy to consider 20 points of movement as working out economic data. Traders were disappointed by the report on durable goods in the United States, which increased by 2.3%, although traders were expecting +2.9%. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted to 411 thousand, although traders were waiting for no more than 382 thousand. Thus, the last two reports could upset the buyers of the dollar. However, I would like to draw your attention again that the pair was trading very reluctantly on Thursday anyway. It isn't easy to talk about any reaction at all to all reports from the United States.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes closed under a descending trend corridor, but this does not change the essence of the graphical picture. The pair continues the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1977). However, there is still no rebound from this level. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. Closing the pair's exchange rate above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the probability of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.2065).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and consolidated under the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Thus, the fall of quotes can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation over the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 24, the calendar of economic events in the European Union was empty, and in America, four reports at once did not arouse any interest among traders.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - main index of personal consumption expenditures (12:30 UTC).
US - change in the level of household spending (12:30 UTC).
US - change in the level of income of the population (12:30 UTC).
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (14:00 UTC).
On June 25, 4 more reports will be released in America. However, they are even less important than yesterday's ones. Thus, there are much more chances that they will also not arouse the interest of traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report, which was released late, showed that speculators actively got rid of long and short contracts during the reporting week. A total of 20,645 long contracts and 32,360 short contracts were closed. Thus, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has again become more "bullish," which does not correspond to what is happening now for the euro/dollar pair. However, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that a strong drop in the euro quotes occurred on those days that were not taken into account in the last report, so to understand the mood of the major players, you need to wait for the next report to be released.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to sell the pair if the quotes close at 61.8% (1.1919) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1837. I recommend buying the pair in case of a new rebound of quotes from the level of 1.1919 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.1985 and 1.2051.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
