At yesterday's trading, the main currency pair of the Forex market showed a slight increase and ended Thursday's session at the level of 1.1930. It is exactly the strong technical level that has been mentioned more than once in previous reviews of EUR/USD. However, we will talk in more detail about the technical picture a little later. For now, let us talk about the events that have already affected the price dynamics of the euro/dollar.
I will start with the US Federal Reserve System( FRS), whose leaders are considering several options for the timing of the start of monetary policy tightening. Some Open Market Committee members (FOMC) believe that it will be appropriate to raise rates in the second half of next year. But another part of the Fed's monetary officials expresses the opinion that this should happen no earlier than 2023. I will add that there is still plenty of time before both expected dates, during which various kinds of changes can occur, particularly about the inflationary component. In this regard, it is possible to call the exact date of the beginning of the cycle of tightening monetary policy very vaguely. There can be no accuracy now. Naturally, the market is in a hurry to win back such an important event in advance, and here is the main benchmark for the second half of 2022.
It is exactly the forecast for the timing of the rate hike given by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, who spoke yesterday. Regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, it can be stated that thanks to a more successful vaccination company than at first, the situation in European countries is significantly improving. So, in Spain, the country that has aged the most from the coronavirus epidemic, the mask regime is being canceled, and this summer, citizens of this country and vacationers will spend time with open faces. Nevertheless, different European countries have their situation with COVID-19. For example, in Portugal, not everything is so good. There is again an increase in the number of infections, primarily associated with the new delta strain COVID-19. If you look at today's economic calendar, the main events will come from overseas. So, at 13:30 (London time), it will become known about Americans' personal income and expenses, and the basic price index of personal consumption expenditures will also be published.
Daily
At the auction on June 24, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading relatively narrowly. The pair rolled back and ended trading at 1.1930. It was already noted at the beginning of the article. At the same time, yesterday's daily candle has formed a long upper shadow, which demonstrates the difficulties of the euro markets in their attempts to raise the exchange rate. In recent days, trading has been conducted near the orange 200-exponential moving average, which does not allow the quote to move in the north direction. Today, at the end of the article, the euro/dollar is trading with an increase near 1.1945. If the players manage to rewrite yesterday's highs for an increase in the exchange rate, the next targets at the top will be 1.1980 and the most important psychological level of 1.2000. If the price falls below yesterday's lows of 1.1917, another rather important level of 1.1900 will likely be tested for a breakdown. Passing this mark and fixing below it will determine the next targets of the bears, at 1.1880 and 1.1845, where the minimum trading values were shown on June 22 and 21.
If we turn to trading recommendations, it is quite problematic to make unambiguous decisions in the current situation, especially given the last day of trading and the closing of the current five-day period. I recommend staying out of the market for those who do not want to take risks for now and waiting for the weekly trading to close. For the rest, I recommend looking at sales near the resistance of 1.1955 and the approach to 1.1980 if it takes place. It is better to plan purchases from the price zone 1.1920-1.1900. At the same time, in both cases, before opening positions, it is better to enlist the support of the appropriate signals and not set big goals. I consider it advisable to close positions before the end of the weekly trading. On Monday, we will conduct a deeper analysis and find more interesting and technically sound options for entering the market.
