The market simply ignored the final data on UK GDP for the first quarter. After all, they completely coincided with the preliminary estimates, which indicated a slowdown in the economic downturn from -7.3% to -6.1%. That is, market participants have not learned anything new for themselves, and the very fact of slowing the pace of economic decline has long been embedded in the current exchange rate of the pound.
GDP Change (UK):
But the market paid attention to the growth of employment in the United States. It was assumed that employment would grow by 450 thousand, but it increased by 692 thousand instead. And faster employment growth immediately led to a stronger dollar. This is largely due to increased expectations regarding the publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor tomorrow. Since employment is actively growing, the report will probably be better than the forecasts. But despite all the unambiguity of the employment data, the dollar's growth turned out to be quite slow and seriously stretched over time.
Employment Change (United States):
The only thing worth paying attention to today is the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. They are becoming somewhat more important, since the report of the United States Department of Labor is being published tomorrow. So, the number of initial requests should be reduced by 41 thousand. The number of repeated requests may decrease by 70 thousand. The overall decrease in the number of applications seems to be small, but the very fact of the reduction will play in favor of the dollar. In other words, the dollar can further strengthen its position. Also, the scale of the dollar's strengthening will be somewhat more modest than yesterday. And this is because of the fact that employment data still carry much more weight.
Number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits (United States):
The GBP/USD currency pair during the last trading day retained the downward interest previously set in the market, as a result of which the quote came close to the base area on June 21.
The market dynamics shows signs of acceleration, but the scale of price changes is still not great. Perhaps, the breakdown of the base on June 21 will be the starting point for a new round of acceleration.
If we proceed from the current location of the quote, we are still located in the base area of 1.3785/1.3800.
In order to prolong the downward move to new price levels, the quote needs to stay below the 1.3785 mark. Otherwise, it is impossible to exclude a slowdown - a rebound from the fulcrum.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that technical instruments unanimously signal a sale, due to the process of restoring the price relative to the recent correction.
