As expected, the final data on PMIs in Europe turned out to be better than forecasted. This development of events was anticipated by us for the simple reason that this is exactly what happened with the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which was published last week. Perhaps this is what prevented the single European currency from demonstrating any impressive growth. So, the index of business activity in the service sector rose from 55.2 points to 58.3 points, while the preliminary estimate spoke of growth to 58.0 points. The composite business activity index, which was supposed to rise from 57.1 points to 59.2 points, increased to 59.5 points.
Composite PMI (Europe):
Today, similar data are published in the United States, and if we proceed from the available forecasts, then the single European currency will gain a foothold above the achieved levels. There is a possibility that it will even continue to grow. The fact is that the index of business activity in the service sector should decrease from 70.4 points to 64.8 points. The composite index may decline from 68.7 points to 63.9 points. Such values were shown by a preliminary estimate. However, it should be noted that the final data came out better than the preliminary estimates not only in the euro area, but also in the UK. So, in the case of the United States, a similar development of events is possible, which may lead to an increase in the dollar.
Composite PMI (United States):
During the last trading day, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to keep the previously set corrective move from the support level of 1.1800 on the market. As a result, the quote came close to the local peak on July 1, relative to which a rollback occurred.
The market dynamics had a low indicator in relation to the average daily level, but the coefficient of speculative transactions continues to grow.
Based on the current location of the quote, a breakdown of the local high on July 1 will be seen. where market participants show a fairly strong upward interest.
In this situation, the corrective move was prolonged to new price levels, but in order for the transition from the correction stage to the recovery mode to occur, traders need to stay above 1.1900. Otherwise, reverse movement is not excluded.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that technical instruments on the minute and hour periods signal a buy, due to the rapid corrective movement in the market.
