US stocks swung between gains and losses on Monday, as investors were torn between increasing expectations for tighter monetary policy and failed negotiations over oil production.
Despite that, the S&P 500 hit new record values, which it again overcame at the start of trading sessions this Tuesday.
The employment data released last Friday showed that the US economy is picking up momentum, but not at a pace that would force the central bank to ease stimulus as quickly as possible. The minutes of the June FOMC meeting, which will be released on Wednesday, will give more clarity to the future actions of the central bank, especially on the quantitative easing program. It will also show to what extent disagreements among members have widened due to the shortening deadlines
As for stocks and bond markets, they were closed last July 4 in celebration of US Independence Day. Because of this, trading was calm, said ING strategist Chris Turner:
Meanwhile, other central banks are starting to end the support programs they implemented to keep economies afloat during the coronavirus crisis. For example, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut some of its programs at its policy meeting on Tuesday, despite ongoing restrictions due to another COVID-19 outbreak.
Other key events this week are:
- policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday);
- minutes of the June FOMC meeting (Wednesday);
- G20 meeting (Friday);
- data on China PPI and CPI.
