Comments by some senior monetary officials from the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, that the Indian delta strain COVID-19 could hinder the recovery of the global economy, did not go unnoticed. At yesterday's trading, investors decided to be cautious and refrain from risky operations, as a result of which the US dollar received additional support as a protective asset and turned out to be in demand.
Today, the focus of investors' attention will be on inflation data in the United States. Let me remind you that the consumer price index will be published today at 13:30 London time. During the economic recovery after the hottest phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation in the United States showed a sharp jump up. However, Fed officials consider this phenomenon temporary. Today's data will be under the special attention of market participants. Now, we turn to the technical part of the review.
Daily
The highs of July 9, shown last Friday at 1.1881, turned out to be a strong technical level. Yesterday's attempts by euro bulls to raise the exchange rate above this mark failed, and the pair turned in a southerly direction from 1.1880. However, even after that, euro bulls found a strong support near 1.1840, which provoked a rebound of the quote, and the trading closed on July 12 at the level of 1.1860. Just at the level that was repeatedly mentioned in previous reviews as technically strong and very significant for the market. If you look at the daily chart, we see that there were no important and drastic changes after yesterday's trading, so it's time to move on to considering smaller time intervals.
H4
In the four-hour timeframe, the pair is stuck between the blue 50 simple moving average, which provides support for the price, and the black 89 exponential moving average, which represents resistance for the pair. A true breakdown of one of these moves will likely determine the further route of the pair, at least in the short term. On this chart, in contrast to the daily one, it is very clear that the breakdown of the strong resistance of sellers in the area of 1.1880 is far from the only task of the players to increase the exchange rate. In addition to breaking the resistance of 1.1881, euro bulls need to pass up the black 89 EMA, breakthrough another resistance level at 1.1895, then pass up the important level of 1.1900 and consolidate higher.
The tasks of the players for promotion can not be called simple in any way. However, if these conditions are met, the road will open to the area of 1.1960-1.1975, where the orange 200 exponential moving average and strong resistance of sellers at 1.1975 are located. For EUR/USD bears, the priority will be to update yesterday's lows at 1.1836 and consolidate under this mark. After that, as already noted, the sellers will focus on the key support zone 1.1800-1.1782. If we turn to technical recommendations, it is not possible to make unambiguous trading decisions. To open sales, you need to wait for the appearance of characteristic candle patterns near 1.1880, and watch the price behavior in the area of 1.1900-1.1920 above. For purchases, the nearest zone is 1.1850-1.1835, and below 1.1800-1.1780. But even before opening long positions, it is better to enlist the support of characteristic candle signals.
