Over the past few weeks, bitcoin has been fluctuating within the wide range of $31,000-$41,000. Due to numerous factors, the cryptocurrency cannot break through the final mark to launch an upward trend. Despite the uncertainty and the lack of short-term prospects, a positive attitude is being formed towards BTC. Whales continue to stock up on the asset, despite the outflow of retailers (a record low number of unique addresses). The crypto coin was able to maintain an extremely important horizontal support level in the area of $32,800, which also inspired optimism.
However, as of July 14, the coin temporarily fell beyond the safe boundary and is quoted in the region of $31,900. At the same time, the local dynamics of the price movement remain negative, and the coin continues its downward movement. In total, bitcoin fell by 4% a day, and in a week it fell by 5.5%, starting a smooth downward movement from the $34,000 mark. The market will likely try to push the BTC quotes above the safe mark. However, with low daily trading volumes of $20 billion, this looks like a difficult task. The situation is also worsened by the fact that in the medium term, the main technical indicators of the cryptocurrency indicate a bearish mood. The MACD remains within the red zone, and the RSI has sunk beyond 25. At the same time, bullish signals are observed in the narrower dynamics. However, the presence of local bullish impulses does not indicate a change of course, but only gives a probability that has never justified itself over the past month.
The main reason for the downward movement of bitcoin was the next wave of mining bans in the Chinese province of Anhui. In the short term, interest in bitcoin will fall even more, and this already affects the quotes. In the medium term, the hashrate of the asset will significantly suffer, as well as the interest of large mining companies in BTC. If we look a little further, then the next wave of migration of miners from China will have a positive impact on the decentralization of the asset and the entire industry. It is also worth noting that the market reacted more calmly to another negative from China. In June, such a statement caused a massive sale, which even medium-term holders went to. This time, the situation is calmer, which indicates that the market is adapting to a constant negative attitude. This is a very important aspect for the future of BTC quotes, as it indicates the maturity of the market. Given that the electric grid Corporation of China has already announced the need to completely stop mining in the country, this will give bitcoin greater stability.
Despite the stable wave of negative news from China, the market is showing tendencies towards the beginning of an upward movement. The main reason for this was the on-chain data, which states that large market players began to accumulate coins. According to Glassnode, users of crypto exchanges withdraw 2,000 bitcoins from the platforms every day. The dynamics of the outflow of assets from cryptocurrency platforms have been observed since the beginning of May, but it was in July that it reached record levels. If the rate of accumulation of BTC continues, then by the end of this week, the volume of the coin will be commensurate with the indicators of April, when bitcoin set the last historical maximum.
At the same time, bitcoin needs a powerful impulse to start moving up. Since the coin is mired in negative news, which is accompanied by technical problems, investors need a signal to buy. Given that the activity of stock markets and institutional players traditionally decreases in the summer, the probability of such an impulse is extremely small. Right now, BTC is closer to testing the strength of the $30,000 milestone. When it breaks, a sale may begin and the swing range of bitcoin may shift to $25,000 - $30,000. To maintain the possibility of a bullish breakout by the end of the week, the cryptocurrency needs to finish the current day above the support level at $32,800. The market can help BTC jump even higher, to $34,000. The current state of affairs on the market indicates the upcoming retest of local support at the level of $31,800. Taking into account the short-term technical indicators of the RSI and MACD, the asset will be pushed to the $32,800 zone, after which bitcoin will continue to trade within a narrow range.
