At yesterday's trading, the euro bulls continued their attempts to move the quote up. What came out of this will be described in more detail in the technical part of the review. We will return to the main event of today and the whole week as a whole. So, today at 19:00 London time, the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will announce its decision on interest rates, publish an accompanying statement to this decision, and a press conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will begin. There is no doubt that the main interest rate will remain at its current level of 0.25%. As for the accompanying statement and Powell's speech, the main point for investors will be a signal or a hint regarding the timing of reducing the quantitative easing (QE) program. It seems that the Open Market Committee (FOMC) will refrain from any specifics.
Most likely, the Fed management will tell that such a possibility is being considered. However, the decision will depend on macroeconomic data and the epidemiological situation with the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically on the vaccination process and the new delta strain of coronavirus infection. At the same time, the Fed will note a very acceptable pace of economic recovery. Inflation jumps will again be called a temporary phenomenon, and the labor market will have to recover to a pandemic level. In general, Powell's speech and comments by the FOMC member will mostly be "hawkish" rhetoric, although not explicit, with constant reservations about following macroeconomic statistics, as well as the situation with COVID-19. In my personal opinion, we will not hear or learn anything radically new from the Fed today.
Daily
As already noted at the very beginning of the article, the euro bulls again tried to continue the exchange rate rise. However, the important upcoming events tonight prompted some caution. In particular, an attempt to break through the resistance level of 1.1830 was not effective. Although the pair visited 1.1841, it was impossible to gain a foothold near the reached heights, and Tuesday's trading ended at 1.1816. On the positive side, it should be noted that the pair ended yesterday's session above the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator. However, while only one candle has closed above this line, it is premature to consider its breakdown true with good reason. Today can provide answers to many questions, primarily regarding the main currency pair of the Forex market.
I consider the completion of today's trading above yesterday's maximum values of 1.1841 to be a clear bullish signal. The bearish scenario will get excellent chances for its implementation only in a confident breakdown of support at 1.1752. An even more obvious bearish mood of the market will be obvious if the pair passes down a strong and significant mark of 1.1700. On days like today, it isn't easy to make any forecasts and offer trading options. Nevertheless, I will express my personal opinion based on the fact that the EUR/USD pair will continue to move in the north direction. We will talk about all the details of the Fed's decision and the comments of monetary officials in more detail in tomorrow's article. In the meantime, we are waiting for the evening events related to the Fed and the reaction of market participants to them.
