Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair was very dull and weak again on Wednesday, still inside the horizontal channel of 1.1756-1.1851. Thus, over the past day, the technical picture has not changed at all. There is still no trend movement and at least some kind of trend. In terms of macroeconomic reports, there is absolutely nothing to take note of, since there isn't any data that was published this week in principle. Based on this, there is simply nothing to draw the attention of novice traders to. Therefore, we note that the Federal Reserve will announce the results of its meeting. The results themselves are not of much interest to traders, since all key parameters of monetary policy will remain virtually unchanged with almost a 100% guarantee. But at a press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, important information may sound. By and large, it all boils down to whether Powell will touch upon the topic of curtailing the quantitative stimulus program or not. In the first case, traders will wait for the clear text when it will be completed. If such rhetoric takes place, then the US dollar may strengthen significantly today (= fall of the euro/dollar pair). Otherwise, the US currency may fall in price. But in almost any case, volatility will rise.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Quite a lot of different trading signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe. Most of it is around the 1.1802 level. There were also a few interesting points to which novice traders should turn their attention. Let's take a look at all the signals. The first buy signal was formed in the middle of the European session - a rebound from the level of 1.1802. This signal was almost perfect - a point "prick" of the level. The price subsequently rose to the level of 1.1831 and practically reached it, only one point left. However, this error can be disregarded. This moment should have been interpreted as a rebound from the level. Thus, a long position should have been closed at about 12 points in profit and a short position should have been opened. After the formation of a sell signal, the price dropped to the level of 1.1802 and rebounded from it, so here it was necessary to close short positions in profit, again about 12 points, and open a new long position. The buy signal turned out to be false, as the price settled below the level of 1.1802 just an hour later. Therefore, it was necessary to close the long position at a loss of about 11 points and open a new short position. Unfortunately, the last signal also turned out to be false, and the price did not manage to go down even 15 points, which would be enough to set Stop Loss to breakeven. However, as the evening approached, one should not wait for the price to settle above the 1.1802 level and close the short position manually with approximately zero profit. All further signals should not have been considered, due to the results of the Fed meeting.
Trading tips for Thursday:
There is still a flat on the 30-minute timeframe. The horizontal channel is very clearly visible, and the pair continues to show rather weak volatility, so we still do not recommend new traders to trade on this timeframe. Here you need to wait for the formation of a trend line or channel and only after that monitor the signals from the MACD indicator. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1802, 1.1831, 1.1851, 1.1880. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. On Thursday, the only major report of the day will be the US Q2 GDP report. However, throughout the day, the markets can be impressed by the Fed meeting and Powell's speech, so trading can be very volatile.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
