GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair moved quite actively on July 29. The results of the Federal Reserve meeting disappointed traders of the pound/dollar pair much more than traders of the euro/dollar pair. Therefore, the pound rose by 60 points during the past day, and the total volatility of the day was more than 80 points. Although 80 points is not a lot for the pound. Nevertheless, the pair was still trading quite actively, and most importantly, the movement was one-sided throughout the day. However, traders did not receive any dividends from this. The movement was really good, but the pair never reached an important line or level during the entire Thursday, so no trading signal was formed. No important macroeconomic information was received from the UK during the day, and the US GDP report did not cause any market reaction. The moment when it was published is marked with the number "1" on the chart. As we can see, the nature of the movement has not changed after its release.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 30. Chasing China.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 30. Jerome Powell and US GDP disappointed dollar bulls.
GBP/USD 1H
The pound/dollar pair continues a new upward trend on the hourly timeframe, and the trend line is slightly adjusted and supports bulls again. The pound has risen in price by 400 points over the past eight days, and the upward movement is almost recoilless. We continue to count on further upward movement, but we also expect a correction in the coming days. The trend line remains relevant, but it can be canceled at any correction, since it has a very large angle. Nevertheless, a rebound from it can be considered as a buy signal. In technical terms, we continue to draw your attention to the most important levels and recommend trading from them: 1.3859, 1.3898, 1.4000, 1.4080. The Senkou Span B (1.3734) and Kijun-sen (1.3850) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when searching for trading signals. No important macroeconomic reports in the UK on Friday, and only secondary data on Americans' income and spending, as well as the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan, will be released in the US. It is unlikely that these reports will cause at least some market reaction, since yesterday a more important report on US GDP was ignored.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 200 points during the last reporting week (July 13-19). The data from the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports fully support this development: the net position of non-commercial traders is falling, and the pound is also dropping. Thus, everything seems to be logical. However, the first indicator in the chart clearly shows that the upward trend is not ending, but that a new downward trend is about to begin. The green and red lines crossed, which already means a bearish mood of traders. Let us remind you that the green line is the net position of the "non-commercial" group, and the red line is the net position of the "commercial" group. Consequently, at this time, professional players have already opened a larger number of contracts for selling (short) than for buying (longs). And this suggests that major players believe in the further fall of the British currency. But here the same factor also works as for the euro/dollar pair. Trillions of dollars continue to flow into the American economy, which is why its rapid recovery is achieved. However, at the same time, the money supply is growing, inflation is rising, which depreciates the dollar much faster than the sales of the major players of the pound. Consequently, we are fully justified in expecting that the pound will also start to rise in price again, simply because inflating money supply in the United States is more global. During the reporting week, major players immediately opened 11,600 contracts for sale and closed 1,100 contracts for buy. Their net position decreased immediately by 12.7 thousand. Now they already have more open sell positions than buy ones. However, on all these actions of large players, the pound barely managed to get to the last local low, which was formed even when the mood of traders was bullish.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
