Oil is rapidly losing in price amid the rapid spread of the COVID-19 delta strain. If the situation continues to deteriorate, especially in developed countries where the number of vaccinated people has reached 70%, pressure on risky assets will only grow stronger. Accordingly, central banks will be forced to maintain a soft monetary policy in order to keep economies afloat.
Today, Bank of England officials will meet to discuss future actions on monetary policy. But many do not expect to see significant changes especially on the volume of bond purchases, as the slowing recovery of the UK labor market far outweighs the growing inflation rate. Currently, about 2 million UK citizens are on "paid leave", so the central bank will most likely say that they are in no hurry to scale back the volume of bond purchases. And in terms of inflation, Governor Andrew Bailey and most other members see the ongoing surge as a temporary phenomenon. So even if the latest inflation rate exceeded the central bank's target of 2%, the prioritization within the bank will not be affected in any way. In fact, the only thing that can shake everyone is if the Bank of England announces that it will soon abolish its support programs, but analysts predict that it will not do so until the key interest rate reaches 1.5%. And most likely, this will not happen before the end of 2022. There is also a nuance that provides for setting a lower threshold of interest rates up to a negative level, not to mention the central bank will also rely on the data regarding the COVID -19 outbreak.
Today, Bank of England officials will meet to discuss future actions on monetary policy. But many do not expect to see significant changes especially on the volume of bond purchases, as the slowing recovery of the UK labor market far outweighs the growing inflation rate. Currently, about 2 million UK citizens are on "paid leave", so the central bank will most likely say that they are in no hurry to scale back the volume of bond purchases. And in terms of inflation, Governor Andrew Bailey and most other members see the ongoing surge as a temporary phenomenon. So even if the latest inflation rate exceeded the central bank's target of 2%, the prioritization within the bank will not be affected in any way. In fact, the only thing that can shake everyone is if the Bank of England announces that it will soon abolish its support programs, but analysts predict that it will not do so until the key interest rate reaches 1.5%. And most likely, this will not happen before the end of 2022. There is also a nuance that provides for setting a lower threshold of interest rates up to a negative level, not to mention the central bank will also rely on the data regarding the COVID -19 outbreak.
In terms of employment, ADP reported that there was a 330,000 increase in private sector jobs in July, which is much lower than the projected 695,000. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said problems with hiring hold back the growth rate, especially in light of new concerns about the Delta strain.
On Friday, the US Department of Labor will release latest data on employment, which analysts expect to rise by around 880,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is predicted to fall from 5.9% to 5.7%.
With regards to EUR/USD, a lot depends on 1.1845 because a consolidation above it will provoke a jump towards 1.1870 and 1.1900. On the other hand, a drop below the level will lead to a decline towards 1.1820 and 1.1790.
