EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair did not move on Thursday! The volatility of the day was about 30 points, so what else can you say about yesterday's movements? Earlier, we were outraged that the pair trades 40-50 points a day and it is quite difficult for traders to trade with such low volatility. However, 30 points is already too much. Nevertheless, we have what we have. And we have a little. Macroeconomic reports were practically absent yesterday. The only report for the day we had for the day was on the number of jobless claims in the US was published (marked with the number "1" in the chart), which, as we expected yesterday, did not cause any reaction from the markets. During the day, (which is very surprising) several trading signals were formed and some of them could even be worked out, although the flat is clearly visible. Both linear regression channels (!!!) are directed sideways and practically merged with each other, which means an absolute flat for a longer period of time than one day. The first buy signal was formed at the beginning of the European trading session in the form of a price rebound from the Senkou Span B line and was immediately duplicated. Traders could open long positions here with 1.1852 as the target, but this level was not worked out on the first attempt. The price did not manage to go up, however, even 15 points, so Stop Loss was not set to breakeven. As a result, the price returned back to the Senkou Span B line and bounced off it two more times. All this time, traders had to keep buying. With grief in half, by the beginning of the US trading session, the price rose to the level of 1.1852 and rebounded from it. Thus, here it was possible to fix profit on longs - 9 points. Since there was a rebound from the level of 1.1852, it was also possible to open short positions, but until the evening the pair could no longer work out the Senkou Span B line, so this deal had to be manually closed at a profit of about 7-8 points. Thus, yesterday we even managed to earn about 15 points of profit.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 6. Richard Clarida's speech rocked the markets for exactly one hour. Then everything returned to normal.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 6. The number of those who voted to cut the QE program at the Bank of England increased from 1 to 1.
EUR/USD 1H
The technical picture is no longer just dull on the hourly timeframe. The upward trend line is no longer relevant, as the price is simply moving along it. There was no breakthrough or rebound. The only thing is that the pair cannot overcome the Senkou Span B line and there are still hopes for a rebound from it and renewed upward movement. But there are practically no other landmarks now. The movement of the pair looks like a flat in the past week. On Friday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines. But it is getting harder and harder to do it every day. The closest important levels at this time are 1.1756, 1.1852, 1.1894, 1.1922, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1830) and Kijun-sen (1.1868) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. It should also be remembered that the lines of the Ichimoku indicator are weak in a flat. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. There are no important publications or events in the European Union on Friday. In the US today will be published the most important NonFarm Payrolls, as well as less significant unemployment and wages.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD increased by 5 points during the last reporting week (July 20-26). However, the pair's movements are not the main thing. The main thing is that the major players have been increasing the number of sell contracts (shorts) for the sixth week in a row and closing buy contracts (longs) for the euro currency. This is very clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart, which has been steadily declining recently. Recall that this indicator displays the net position of the "non-commercial" group, the most important group of traders. Non-commercial traders closed 5,600 buy contracts (longs) and opened 1,700 sell contracts (shorts). Thus, their net position decreased by another 7,300 contracts. This suggests that the bullish mood of professional traders continues to weaken. At the same time, we would like to note that the euro currency has not started a new downward trend and this is a very important point, from our point of view. We have already said earlier that when the red and green lines of the first indicator (the net positions of the "non-commercial" and "commercial" groups of traders) move towards each other after a long period of distance, it means that the current trend is completed and a new one is emerging. However, in our case, we are talking about a correction against a global upward trend. It turns out that, on the one hand, the readings of the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports and the movement of the pair coincide, and on the other hand, the upward trend persists, and the euro has not fallen very much and has fallen in price. Moreover, it did not even manage to update the previous local low. From our point of view, this suggests that the actions of major players are again overlapped by the actions of the Federal Reserve, which continues to print money. Thus, the money supply in the United States continues to grow, which leads to the depreciation of the dollar. And this factor negates all the efforts of major players who are getting rid of the euro.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
