Last week, the US dollar strengthened across a wide range of the foreign exchange market, including against the British pound. As expected, in the case of strong Friday data on the US labor market, this factor will have a decisive impact on the outcome of weekly trading. And so it turned out. All three main indicators of the American labor market - the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the economy, and the growth of average hourly wages - were significantly stronger than the forecast values. You can find out more about this in today's article on the euro/dollar. This week, the main macroeconomic events that can affect the price dynamics of the GBP/USD currency pair will be the change in consumer prices in the US and the volume of GDP in the UK. Especially in the light of increased inflationary pressure, market participants will monitor the consumer price index in the United States of America. Today is an uninformative day in terms of publishing macroeconomic events unless attention can be paid to the level of vacancies and labor turnover in the United States, which will be published at 15:00 London time.
Weekly
I want to note right away that among all the major currencies that weakened against the US dollar, the British pound showed the smallest decline, which amounted to 0.19%. On the technical side, the red Tenkan line and the blue line of the Ichimoku indicator continued to provide strong resistance to the quotes in their attempts to grow. And the maximum values of last week at 1.3953 were lower than the previous ones. In general, the last weekly candle leaves a probability for two scenarios. The first is its absorption and significant growth, with the week's closing at least above 1.4000 and even better above the mark of 1.4015. The second option provides for a decrease in the area of 1.3670. At the beginning of weekly trading, it is difficult to guess how the pound/dollar pair will end the week. Perhaps, after Friday's strong labor reports, the market will continue to win them back for some time.
Daily
The daily chart clearly shows that the strong decline was stopped by the repeatedly mentioned technical level of 1.3860. However, the bears managed to finish Friday's trading below the black 89 exponential moving average for the first time in a long time. The current attempts of the bears to push through the mark of 1.3860 do not lead to anything at this stage of time, but the very fact of such attempts indicates the seriousness of the players' intentions to lower the exchange rate. However, I do not think that the bulls on the pound will throw out a white flag and stop fighting. It is very unlikely. However, since sellers have several strong and significant resistances at the top, the path up will be thorny.
Regarding trading recommendations at this stage, I suggest looking closely at the opening of short positions on the approach to 1.3900, 1.3930, and 1.3980. The confirmation signal for the opening of purchases will be the characteristic patterns of candle analysis on this or smaller time intervals.
Concerning purchases, I suggest taking a wait-and-see position for now and see how today's trading will close relative to the level of 1.3860. There may be no rise to the specified values for opening sales. I hope that tomorrow there will be more food for thought.
