To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
In my morning forecast for the first half of the day, I paid attention to the level of 1.1727 and recommended that you enter the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. The bulls are trying to form a false breakdown in the area of 1.1727, which leads to a signal to buy the euro. However, there was no rapid upward growth of the pair. After very weak data on the index of sentiment in the business environment of Germany and the eurozone, the pressure on the pair returned. For the second half of the day, the technical picture is completely revised.
Given that during the US session, data on the NFIB small business optimism indicator and changes in the level of labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector of the US are unlikely to provide significant support to the euro, most likely, the pressure on EUR/USD will continue further. The buyers' focus will be placed on protecting the level of 1.1707, to which the pair is gradually declining. The formation of a false breakdown forms the first signal to open long positions to expect an upward correction. An equally important task for the bulls will be to return the resistance of 1.1737 under control. A breakthrough of this area and its reverse test from top to bottom will form a buy signal to grow to the level of 1.1767, just below which the moving averages pass. A more distant task for buyers will be to update the maximum of 1.1787, where I recommend fixing the profits. Under the scenario of a further decline in EUR/USD during the US session and the lack of bull activity in the area of 1.1707, I advise you to wait for the next major low of 1.1682 to be updated and buy the pair there immediately for a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
Sellers still have all the cards in their hands. The breakthrough of another support in the first half of the day sent the euro exactly to the minimum of 1.1707, at which the bears may again experience some problems. If the data on the US economy turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, the main task of sellers will be to protect the resistance of 1.1737, to which the euro may return in the afternoon. The formation of a false breakdown in this area will signal to open short positions in the expectation of a further fall of the pair and the trend to the area of the minimum of 1.1707. A breakout and a reverse test of this range will quickly push EUR/USD to the area of 1.1681, and a further target will be the minimum of 1.1643, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of EUR/USD growth during the US session and the absence of bull activity at the level of 1.1737, it is best to postpone sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1767, where the moving averages are held. It is also possible to open short positions only after the formation of a false breakdown. I advise selling the pair immediately for a rebound based on a downward correction of 15-20 points only from the maximum of 1.1787.
There are no obvious changes in the balance of power in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for August 3. Moreover, the lack of important fundamental statistics on the eurozone last week and the summer pause forced traders to take a wait-and-see position. The focus was shifted to the data on the US labor market, which was published at the end of last week. However, its results are not taken into account in this COT report. Thus, it seems that everything has remained unchanged. The market movement is again becoming bearish since the data on the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector turned out to be much better than economists' forecasts. It allows us to count on an earlier curtailment of the asset purchase program by the Federal Reserve System. Representatives of the committee have already started talking about this at the beginning of this week, whose speeches will continue throughout the week. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from 202,245 to the level of 199,067, while short non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 164,119 to the level of 161,060. By the end of this week, we are waiting for important fundamental statistics on inflation in the US, which can seriously affect the direction of the EUR/USD pair. However, it is provided that the data diverge from economists' forecasts. Many expect that the rate of inflation growth will slow down. If this happens, the euro will regain its position. If the data indicate the continuation of the rapid growth of the CPI, the US dollar continued to strengthen its position against the European currency. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 38,126 to the level of 38,007. The weekly closing price increased from the level of 1.1804 to the level of 1.1874.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, indicating a further decline in the euro and the trend.
Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
If the euro rises, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1745 will act as a resistance.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
