At yesterday's trading, the US dollar continued its strengthening against the major currencies. This fate did not bypass the single European currency. Strong data on the US labor market revived investors' hope that the Federal Reserve System (FRS) will reduce the quantitative easing program earlier. In addition, restrictive measures in China, due to the appearance of cases of infection with the COVID-19 delta strain, can significantly affect the recovery of the global economy. Naturally, in the negative direction. As for the economic calendar, the main event of today will be the consumer price index in the United States, which will be published at 13:30 London time. It is expected that consumer prices in the United States will grow by 0.5% monthly and by 5.3% annually. Suppose the actual figures turn out to be stronger than the forecast values. In that case, this will further strengthen the position of the US currency in the Forex market, as expectations of the beginning of the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy will increase even more.
Daily
The EUR/USD daily chart shows that the pair has closed below the support level of 1.1752 for the last two trading days. If the third candle in a row closes below this level, it will be possible to consider it truly broken and count on the opening of sales when rolling back to it. Moreover, when writing, the pair continues a moderate downward trend and is approaching the lower border of the corridor, which is a key support in the current situation. We are talking about the most important technical and psychological level of 1.1700, from the breakdown of which the further direction of the quote will largely depend. I believe that the publication of the US consumer price index will be a sufficient driver for a breakdown or rebound up from the level of 1.1700. However, even if today's trading closes below 1.1700, it will be premature to consider this level truly broken. Let me remind you that the price zone 1.1750-1.1700 is historically quite strong and has repeatedly changed the direction of price movement. Let's look and observe this moment.
H1
Looking at the hourly chart, it is worth noting that the EUR/USD pair is trading under all three used moving averages of 50 MA, 89 EMA, and 200 EMA. A rollback to any of them can be a good option for opening sales, which are the main trading ideas for EUR/USD in the current situation. The only thing that is confusing and introduces some shadow of a doubt is the hourly bullish divergence of the MACD indicator. However, it can be won back, discharged, or completely ignored by market participants. In other words, the presence of bullish or bearish divergences should not be considered a clear signal for opening positions. It is only an additional (secondary) signal. In my opinion, the course of today's trading will largely depend on the data on consumer prices in the United States. From a technical point of view, sales look good after the pair rises to the price zone of 1.1735-1.1760. And the confirmation signal will be the appearance of bearish candlestick analysis models in the designated zone.
