Bitcoin prices corrected on Thursday, which is not surprising after so many bullish daily candles. The decline can be caused by the closure of long positions. Against this background, the strength of the support level 44,807.24 (lower red dotted line) is still in question. But do not rush to conclusions, the daily candle is not closed yet.
It should be noted that the struggle for a breakout and consolidation above this level lasts for four days. In parallel, the behavioral analytics platform Santiment shows that addresses from 100 to 10,000 BTC have significantly reduced their holdings. In the last four days alone, these whales have sold more than 40,000 BTC worth about $2.07 billion, which could be confirmation of profit-taking. But this may turn out to be only a short-term phenomenon.
Meanwhile, well-known cryptanalyst Willy Woo said that now, according to data obtained from within the network, the number of users of the bitcoin network "is growing at the fastest rate in history."
In particular, he pointed out that 1.2 million users were added over the past month, which, he said, "is equivalent to connecting a country the size of El Salvador every 2 months." Over the past 30 days, 1.2 million users have been added.
Dan Held, director of growth marketing at Kraken, notes that 1.2 million new users in 30 days is "probably almost the same number of users in the entire 2013-2014 cycle."
However, Woo notes that this number does not include users on centralized crypto exchanges like Coinbase.
The expert drew attention to another aspect of the change in the crypto market: circulating bitcoins are now distributed differently, and crypto whales are holding less than before.
According to data that Woo collected from various sources, including Glassnode, the share of large holders of cryptocurrencies (whales) has decreased and now stands at 25 percent. Previously, it was about twice as large.
Earlier, information from the South Korean network data collector CryptoQuant was presented on U.Today. The report says that whales hold about 48 percent of the BTC supply in circulation. Whales meant wallets with more than 1,000 BTC.
BTC reserves, which are held in wallets between 10 and 1,000 BTC (Woo calls them "middle class," but they are still whales), contain roughly 37 percent of the bitcoin supply. This number is also declining.
Public organizations (such as crypto exchanges, public companies, ETFs) own 18 percent of the main cryptocurrency supply and have grown.
Investors holding less than 10 BTC are also increasing their assets. Woo notes that their stocks are up 14 percent.
The demand and interest in bitcoin is growing. The transition of the main cryptocurrency to the range of 41,980.24 - 64,883.36 in the absence of a negative news background, I suppose, will return bitcoin to its all-time high. But the timing and speed of promotion is extremely difficult to predict.
In this regard, for the time being, I keep three possible scenarios, formed based on technical levels, as relevant.
- Return to horizontal level at 41,980.24 and confirm it as a support.
- Growth in the area of $48,000. Perhaps it will be in the current range of 44,807.24 - 48,178.13, between the two red dotted lines, or maybe after the first scenario has been worked out.
- Growth to all-time highs after consolidating above the $48,000 - $50,000 area.
