Excessive overbought of the dollar for a long time made everyone restless, but it was not possible to carry out a full-fledged correction. There was simply no suitable reason. All the American statistics for the most part were positive for the dollar, and the European statistics, to put it mildly, were not impressive. And so, last Friday, a suitable reason for such a long-awaited correction finally turned up. Although no macroeconomic data has been published in principle, just like today. The whole point is in the statements of representatives of the Federal Reserve System. More precisely, this is because of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, who said that before starting to think about curtailing the quantitative easing program, it would be worth seeing stronger data on the labor market.
Here, it is necessary to recall that in addition to the planned increase in the refinancing rate for the middle of next year, the Federal Reserve System also intends to reduce the quantitative easing program, which is the main engine for the growth of stock indices. This issue should be discussed at the end of this year. And as soon as the Federal Reserve System announced such plans, it immediately caused a lot of fears on the part of financial market participants, who immediately began to frighten with the prospect of a catastrophic collapse of the markets and the subsequent deepest economic crisis. And so, one of the main speakers of the Federal Reserve System calmed the markets, in fact hinting that considering the issue does not yet mean making a specific decision. After all, the American labor market looks very good. At least the latest report of the United States Department of Labor showed an incredible reduction in the unemployment rate. But judging by the words of Neel Kashkari, this is not enough to wind down the quantitative easing program. That is, the regulator will continue to support the excessive money supply to stimulate the economy, and most importantly, the financial markets. In other words, the number of dollars on the market will not decrease. And as follows from the law of supply and demand, if the quantity of a product does not decrease, then it can grow in price only because of an increase in demand, and the growth potential is clearly decreasing. This was the reason for the growth of the pound, or rather the reason for the long-awaited correction.
The GBP/USD currency pair bounced off the support level of 1.3800, forming a corrective move in the market. As a resistance level, the Fibonacci line 23.6 stands in the way of buyers, relative to which there was a reduction in the volume of long positions.
The market dynamics shows signs of acceleration, which is confirmed by an increase in the volume of speculative operations.
Considering the trading chart on the scale of the daily period, there is a consistent downward movement from the psychological level of 1.4000.
Expectations and prospects:
Taking the consistent downward movement in account, it is impossible to exclude the fact that the correction served as a regrouping of trading forces. This may lead to increased downward interest in the market.
Traders will consider a downward movement if the price is kept below the Fibonacci level of 38.2, which will open the way towards the support level of 1.3800.
An alternative scenario for the price development will be considered in the case of holding the quote higher than 1.3900 on a four-hour period. This may lead to a return of the price to the limits of the psychological level of 1.4000.
A comprehensive indicator analysis signals a sale in the short-term and intraday periods.
